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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MetalTrader who wrote (7464)9/6/2001 8:08:34 AM
From: Think4Yourself  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
re: The reasons you give for buying it at 12 haven't changed and were justifiable reasons to buy it at 45.

Strongly disagree with that statement. I would probably have been a shorter of ORCL above 30, but have been a buyer from 13 down. There are vague points everyone has in their mind where the price is too high to buy/cover and too low to sell/short. You can see it happening right on this thread.

I remember the study you refer to. Also found that comment interesting: You never hear from the exhausted sailor who was nearly to shore when a porpoise showed up and pushed him back out to sea.



To: MetalTrader who wrote (7464)9/6/2001 11:14:56 AM
From: cnyndwllr  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
MetalTrader. I won't be back until next Sunday so I thought I better type a quick post or two before I leave town.

You make many good points and I agree with much of what you say. In fact, until recently I had not invested in the large caps because I felt there were much better values among the small caps. The recent declines in the prices of the large caps have me nosing in, however, since I think that in the start of any rally they will jump. I don't plan on holding them for the long term since there are usually small caps that play better and don't get the institutional interest. I like to play those and buy in when they drop on low volume. I have often been able to buy small caps with no debt at cash value. The times that I have been burned are the times when I tried the story stocks and the story fizzled.

I didn't say that the funds had tons of cash but I did say that the institutional investors, acting together could jump start a rally anytime they wanted. As soon as they gave glowing opinions to the empty talking heads and started buying, the market would accellerate to the upside and the press would be full of stories about why that was justified based on something. I think a lot of money is afraid of missing out on a bottom and that sentiment would favor a sharp rally. I still think that but my view is getting dimmer since this friggin dolphin got me by the arm and is dragging me out to deep sea. g.

On orcl, you thought I meant the software company? I meant the oracle of Omaha. I wish. Actually I am still holding the oracle and will buy more if it continues to drop. It's a good company and I think that there is value there if my view of the big picture is correct. I would not have bought it at 30 since there were much better values out there. I did buy it just over 12 since it's a repository for mutual fund monies when the market is better as a result of the liquidity of its shares and its fundamentals.

I give you credit for calling the trend correctly so far. I suspect that it is about to turn but I wouldn't bet more than I could afford to lose on that. We rarely lose all that we risk, just little pieces at a time. I still try to sell when they rise and buy when they fall. Whether the timing is right will be determined after I sell. Ed