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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4928)	9/6/2001 4:24:01 PM
From: olduvai5	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Hi Ian Well, I've considered that. My concern is that device output is going to grow a lot faster than wafer input as 300mm lines come online. Balance the lower unit volume of the required front end and process equipment against the higher price per unit of the equipment and I think you come up a little short. Or, look at it this way. Cost to process a wafer is going to drop a lot (or why are they bothering), but cost to package and test will not (unless much better structural testing or tighter process cuts test costs and somebody invents a packageless chip). The question is really revolving around whether the 300mm tool orders will come way before the excess package and test capacity is absorbed. The jury is out, but I think that caution in capex will keep 300mm orders from booming until early 2003, and we'll run out of test and package capacity in Q3 or 4 of 2002, leading to a surge in new KLIC orders. All those fence sitters (like me) will come piling in at that point and we'll quickly double. The fun is in the waiting! olduvai5