Thanks for explaining your position.
Rereading my post, I was rude and dismissive. Sorry. I don't mean to be. I am sceptical, but open to changing my opinion.
I, too, am a "techie", but in a different field (medicine). And, as part of investing in growth companies, I've been trying to get a working knowledge of the underlying technologies in the companies I am investing in. I realize my understanding can never be more than superficial.
What I am mainly sceptical of, is the connection between Great Technology and a Great Stock. I've seen too many examples where there turned out to be no connection between the two. Too, too often, Great Technology doesn't get adopted, or it turns into a commodity where no one makes any profits, or another Greater Technology quickly makes it obsolete. To me, the thing I can rely upon, is that CDMA is becoming the proprietary standard, not that it is a superior technology. Investing is about predicting the future. I can reliably predict that, 5 years from now, CDMA will still be the proprietary standard for wireless.
Over the years, I have heard a constant stream of predictions about various technologies, by techies who know the technology thoroughly. In biotech, in medicine, in software and communications and chips. The track record of those predictions, I have found, has been poor. The predictions usually have overoptimistic assumptions. Assumptions about what consumers want, how much they are willing to pay for it, how fast it can be made compatible with the installed base, how fast it can be made convenient and cheap, how fast the bugs can be worked out, etc. Techies love technology, and are willing to overlook a lot of things that Mass Market Adopters won't. So, I cannot reliably predict that, 5 years from now, any specific 3G application will be widely adopted. I can Hope and Guess, but I cannot Reliably Predict. And I am not willing to invest based on Hopes and Guesses.
Specifically:
"They will have color screens" You didn't respond to my original objection, the inevitably tiny size of the screens, which will make the other qualities of the screen irrelevant.
"they will be always on" What benefit will the consumer see in this? Won't they be turned off when not in use, to conserve the battery? Or will we have to remember, every evening, to plug them into a recharger?
"They will have special web pages just designed for them" How many, by next Christmas? When people use the web, they now use it on a PC. And, with each succeeding generation, the screens on PCs get bigger and bigger. We have two PCs at home, with a 17" and a 21" screen. I am irritated by the 17" screen; it isn't big enough. The web is built as a visual medium. I cannot "see" any mass market use of the web on a 2" screen. If you're talking about extracting info from the web, using a voice-only two-way interface, well, this isn't going to be ready in 4 months, is it? I don't think you can extrapolate the rapid adoption of the web using PCs, to the rapid adoption of the web using PDAs. Every attempt, so far, to get web-site creators to design a useful collection of "special" web sites for PDA-size-device interfaces, has been a failure, so far. It's been tried, and the track record is discouraging.
"they will have built in cameras" Cameras are already very small and portable and reliable, and not very expensive. When people want a camera, they will use a camera. It is only useful to combine two separate devices, when those devices are usually used together, like a TV and VCR. A PDA-cellphone-camera, IMO, is about as useful as a PDA-toaster-hairbrush combo. I can, perhaps, see the utility of being able to plug a camera (still or video) into the PDA, so the image can be viewed remotely and realtime. I can see this as a niche (not mass market) application, at best. What kind of video quality do you get, downloading at 90kbps?
"They will have virtually dirt cheap international calling rates ( Net to Phone)" Yes, this is a real, proven mass market app. Unfortunately, as you point out, (dirt cheap), it is also a commodity, where no one will make any profits. I'm still searching in vain for where the profits come from.
"they will be able to communicate with your notebook and you automobile and your ATM." By next Christmas? Dream on. This is at least 5 years off. This involves either a complete turnover in the installed base of all those other devices, or a highly-paid technician opening up all those devices and installing add-on hardware/software. Do you have any idea how much that would cost? (I don't, but I'd bet the figure is in the 100s of billions) Who do you imagine has the incentive and ability to pay for it? In the language of the Gorilla Game, this "pan-connectivity" technology is just at the beginning of the Bowling Alley, nowhere near Mass Market Adoption. We may see, slowly, one by one over the next few years, a few niche applications for this emerge. And then (2005-2010) it will go on to be Mass Market.
"It will know ....... where everyone else is" This application will be useful, only when most phones (or PDAs) have this capability. If only a small fraction of phones can do this, it won't be useful. The usefullness of this (vs. fraction of devices with the capability) could be graphed as a S-shaped curve. When will most phones have this? From the projections I've read, most phones will still be 2G, for the next 5 years. In addition, I'm not sure this will ever be Adopted. I think there will be a lot of resistance, to the idea of letting everyone know where everyone else is. It's rather a creepy idea, with a lot of unpleasant effects, if you think about the social implications.
"It will know........where all the stores and restaurants are." Now this, I can see rapid adoption for. The ever-increasing tribes of BlueHair Nomads who live in their RVs, the business people who are always on the road or in the air, they will like this. On their laptop, not PDA or cellphone (again, the human-interface screen-size problem). But......can't you already buy a CD that has this data? Since this info doesn't change very fast, do you need a modem for real-time data? Just buy a CD, once a year, that has all this data on it, and access it on your (stand-alone) laptop. Won't that be cheaper and more reliable, and the data comes up a lot faster on your screen, than if you get it via a 90kbps pipeline?
"It will be able to all sorts of goodies in the Corporate world" This, finally, might be real. Can you give me any specifics?
"I am herre and have been for the last four years " You've had one hell of a roller-coaster ride. Roller-coaster rides make me nauseous. Got Dramamine?
I am long the stock, now, because I calculate the roller-coaster tracks are now nearer a low point, than a high point, and that the tracks eventually go upward and stay that way (rather than just going in circles). If you've been patient for 4 years, you are a Strong Hand, and so you probably have the fortitude to be patient for another 4 years. You'll need that patience. |
