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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (41043)	9/7/2001 12:24:24 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

welcome to the much awaited 2ndHalfRecovery the central error made by the major of brokerage strategists and economists is to overlook the differences between current conditions and economic conditions prior to most other "Fed-inspired" recoveries almost nothing is in common, and they cannot admit that the Fed cuts interest rates, and voila, wait 8-9 months poof, instant recovery with inflated household debt, inflated mfg capacity, inflated info processing equipment, inflated household debt, inflated corporate debt, inflated stock valuations still, and inflated dollar.... NOTHING MUCH IS SIMILAR TO THE PAST any recovery starting later this year, or early next year will be the most pathetic attempt at a US economic expansion in post-war history as much as we prefer to place ourselves smugly above the Japanese in the spectre of worldwide opinion, the similarities are lining up as rather a long list the key differences: our banking system allows death peacefully and smoothly our bankruptcy system allows for quick personal renewal our corporate restructuring laws enable ploughins of mindboggling proportions raiders, financiers, and other sharpies act like surgeons as they carve out healthy sections for reincarnation they are often mistaken as vultures feeding Japan doesnt carve to salvage anything, instead allowing entire entity to become walking dead they even permit the keiretsu (conglomerate) to be weighed down by billion$ albatrosses until the whole system of interlinked companies is essentially worthless case in point: Mitsubishi I read a sad analysis of Japan recently by Jeremy Grantham it stated that their entire bankign system is worth "zero" and their entire industrial complex is worth "scrap metal" that is what excess does when you dont deal with dead parts America is dealing with dead parts now, rapidly, efficiently, with large scale consequences the telecom industry is now entering a final phase of intensive care the surgeons, morticians, and vultures are at work now pieces are being salvaged, ready for our brand of renewal anyone remember the humble beginnings of Toys R Us ? emerged as a viable subsidiary from a Ch11 retail bankruptcy about 15 years ago would never happen in the Land of the Rising Sun or is it the Land of the Setting Bank Vault ??? we are traveling down the same path as Japan sorry to watch it happen ours will be a path that smells better, offers more hope, and delivers on some real but brief resuscitations but stagnation from a decade of excess will cost plenty mostly it will cost TIME the Federal Reserve has prevented a US financial meltdown IT HAS NOT ENGINEERED A RECOVERY the next year will be uninspiring except for limited pockets I believe one keen area is biotech and eventually another keen area will be energy now how about the concept of 17-yr Real Estate cycle ending? / jim