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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: freeus who wrote (8487)	9/7/2001 5:54:50 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

no body can answer that question. if they try, run from them as fast as you can. of course the primary question is one of time. how much do you have? in one year you want to retire. can you regain from here 84% to break even? in one more year can you lose the 75% that's left from where you started? can you simply convert to cash and lock in long term somewhere perhaps around 5-6 percent in safe paper? what are you willing to tolerate, how much time do you have, what do you remember from previous bear markets in your lifetime? you have to guide yourself to a decision. though I would also suggest, no decision, is not one of the choices.

To: freeus who wrote (8487)	9/7/2001 9:47:03 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Freeus, <<worst scenario … now-present and worsening financial collapse? I mean realistically not to the unlikely extreme>> You asked a serious question requiring an answer without my usual dramatics. I do not know the answer. I think the exchange between you and Joel was a good and responsible one. Worst? I will take a wild stabbing guess in the dark about what one may want to be mentally prepared for. I guess only, absent of first-hand feel from most industries, and devoid of formal education in economics: (a) Economic contraction of more than one year for large locomotive economies, (b) Reduction of global trade (multiple quarters), (c) Unemployment going above 7% rapidly and staying there (more than one year), (d) Equity prices in aggregate dropping by another 50% and rest there (multiple quarters), (e) Investment grade corporate bonds to eventually yield over 15%, (f) Real estate aggregate prices in current choice locations decline by 30-40%, (g) Politics turn extreme In summary, what is coming will be the worst I have ever seen, and worse than what the politicians and financiers know how to navigate. So we go on this journey in a leaky boat, without adequate training, minus a map, and short on rations. To survive and prosper, use the early New World colony founders’ situation as a thought experiment and ask yourself how you would analogically handle their then equally dangerous journey to an unfamiliar new world. I am figuring high cash (ration), low debt (responsibility), diversification (hedge the gene pool by spreading the family members out on several boats), keep working (be useful, engaged, challenged, helpful, and paid), be alert (scope for unusual and mis-priced opportunities, and dangers). If I am wrong with my guess by being too cautious, what is the harm? And if I am right, what is the reward? I think the Greenspans of this world have been wrong for so long that they forgot how to be right and are a danger to the general welfare of all, and that is why I make a point of thumping them, even though the germs of their ideas are simply too pervasively spread and deeply entrenched that the cure can only be a financial world put to the flame of the Great Purge. Chugs, Jay Reference to Equal Time Alternative View: Message 16313647 Message 16317704 Chugs, Jay