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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (1129)	9/10/2001 12:55:37 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95520

Now this may be not be 100% factual but according to information I heard last Friday in past price bottoms (on a cyclical basis) Semiconductor Capital Equipment stocks have sold on an average basis of 2 1/2 times book value. At this time most stocks in the group are twice that amount according to my source on CNN.... Lou Dobbs. So I think what Don is trying to say with his recent tables is that based on P/E's or any other relative valuation to past cycle bottoms semiconductors stocks are for the most part overvalued on a relative basis. Have we seen the bottom? If so stocks have held up remarkably well based on expectations for a sharp upturn in orders. If that does not happen then we may not have seen the bottom at all. Now don't get me wrong.... I am long on the market but lets get real we don't know yet if we have seen the bottom or not. Still on a comparative basis this is an industry that has a lot more going for it than most throughout technology. None of the other industries can grow without it! RtS

To: Kirk © who wrote (1129)	9/10/2001 7:21:31 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95520

Kirk, As you point out, PE numbers vary all over the place for each individual stock, however, when the average is taken I think it is a reasonable measurement of difference between "then" and "now". To me, it roughly says that given the economic environment that is somewhat the same between October 1998 and now, the PE for the group is about 2 times today what is was back then. I have no way of proving it, since I did not store any of the PSR or PBR data from the 1998 period, but my guess is that it would show the same sort of 2 to 1 differences in values. Don