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To: paul_philp who wrote (46406)	9/10/2001 2:34:00 PM
From: RobertHChaney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Great additions to the list Paul. You stimulated me to think further about the subject, and I might add the following: 1) America appears to be far more competitively globally than during 70s/early 80's, when our underlying weaknesses that had been somewhat shielded for years, were exposed to increasingly efficient foreign competition; and 2) Unions were a more powerful force pre-Reagan. I continue to try not to underestimate the fact that a truly massive, speculative bubble has recently burst, and that the subsequent results of that type of occurrence have historically been very bad. However, like yourself, I feel that many of the major underlying fundamentals of this economy are superior to those present in similar "bubble burstings" in the past, and so, may provide some moderation. IMHO, things just look fundamentally more sound today than the U.S. did in the early 20's and early 70's, and Japan in early 90's. But, you never know for sure because anything can happen once the "snowball starts rollin down the hill". Robert

To: paul_philp who wrote (46406)	9/10/2001 9:17:18 PM
From: techreports	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

1) Interest rates are low; 2) Historically, unemployment is very low; 3) The world is at peace (by and large); 4) The pace of innovation is accelerating. Or you could look at it this way 1) Inflation is low, meaning it will eventually go up 2) unemployment isn't going to get any better meaning we've peaked in this area. Time to buy is when unemloyment is near 6 or 10%, cause eventually it'll hit 4/5% when times get good 3) the world is a peace, but that means it can't get better, but worse. Time to buy is during a war, cause the war will eventually end. 4) innovation will probably continue (that could already be factored/discounted in stock prices however), but over 40% of households are invested in the stock market from probably just 10% in 1980. You think we're going to see another 3 fold rise in the next 17 years? Not likely..This is the main reason stock prices have outperformed earnings in the last 17 years and baffles Buffett i believe. not saying we're doomed, just trying to offer another opinion/view.

To: paul_philp who wrote (46406)	9/11/2001 3:37:30 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

1) Interest rates are low; 2) Historically, unemployment is very low; 3) The world is at peace (by and large); 4) The pace of innovation is accelerating. Paul, you are correct. In regards to your point #2, here is a chart from the BLS (Bureau of Labor and Statistics) that includes data up to July of 2001 and compares on a state by state basis, the unemployment level compared to the historical highs and lows since 1978: stats.bls.gov Although more layoffs are coming as in any slowdown and it is not known what the "peak" of unemployment will be in this business cycle, the unemployment rate is still much nearer the historic lows than the majority of the double digit historical highs for the 1978 to present period. BB