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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stock Farmer who wrote (55174)9/10/2001 7:26:31 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 77400
 
Hi John, since we're talking about soft stuff that is basically an opinion and not verifiable, I'll throw in my two cents. Everyone says we need capitulation and fear to signal the bottom. You say that there is no fear. Actually, I see it everywhere. Sometimes fear takes ahold of you so gradually, that it sneaks past you so that your mind doesn't even register that initial knee-jerk reaction of loud, hair-raising, bone-chilling, blood-curdling terror. Instead your reaction goes straight from optimism to shock. When people are in a state of shock, their reaction is usually to do nothing. They are incapable of doing anything despite the mounting evidence that their mind and body are not registering in the way fear would normally evince a reaction. That's the way I see it now. People are so beyond fear, they are shocked into inaction. No new money is going in and the stock market continues its steady march downwards.

I think we are within one month of a bottom. All the signals are starting to attest to that. New manufacturing orders are above 50 having steadily climbed since Jan, prices and inventories are below 50, unemployment registered a new shocking high (usually a lagging indicator), we have started the 9th month since the Fed started easing (usually when the full effects start to show up), capitulation is evident in that people's numbness is palpable (everyone is plain despaired), the Gov't's tax rebates are almost complete (money on the sidelines), mutual funds have been selling all year (no big tax loss selling effect this Oct), and telecom and networking companies have finally started being honest in their projections of a recovery being a year or more out.

I think if we aren't at the bottom now or in the next month, then it will be close enough, and to try to catch one or two more points to the downside will be an exercise in greed and futility. I'm going to start betting with my dollars soon to establish what I think may be long positions again. In Jan/Feb, I'll reassess whether I should dump or stay long. If I stay long, then I'll be holding through the next upcycle which will occur around the 2nd Half 2002 through at least 2004.