Hi CB, TM, DJ, Carranza2, We need caring, and we need resolution, and that is definitely not the same as “we just need love”. I can understand Carranza2’s quip, and I hope it was just a quip, about the Beatle’s song, because that is not what is going to work. How do I know? Because I am getting on a plane for Hong Kong this afternoon, but if I see four Xinjiang Muslims getting on the plane with me, I will get off. We are at war.
Afghanistan, Aceh, Sudan, Xinjiang, Mindanao, and Matuku Islands. All these are names that did not ring a bell in most people’s mind only a few short days ago. Now, heads-up, all these places are known to harbor cells of Holy Warriors financed and philosophically led by one man, and you now know his name, Osama bin Laden. The warriors are recruited potentially from a pool of around one billion people. We simply do not know enough about what is going on, and alarmingly, whatever it is, it has been going on for a long time.
There is now talk of Chinese troop movements from the central provinces to the western frontier in Xinjiang. I am sure the Russians and Central Asian states, under an agreement signed a few months ago by Jiang, Putin, and five Central Asian leaders to coordinate security moves against Moslem extremists, are also moving troops around. At the time of the agreement signing, US newspapers, led by WSJ and International Herald Tribune editors, painted a negative picture of the effort. Needlessly to say, but I will say it, obviously, there was something wrong with the painted picture.
India, recently courted by Bush administration as a counter-weight to China, and supposedly in exchange for a blind-eye on Hindu nuclear bomb development, to counter a Moslem Pakistan and a ‘communist’ China bomb development, now has to take a back seat to a newly critical Pakistan, another country better under the control of firm hands, for the moment, rather than any willy-nilly democratically elected government in a region of tension and instability. What is the lesson? Nothing is a simple picture, geo-political friends come and go, but true enemies are forever.
Do we really want Saudi Arabia to be under democratically elected government now? Do we really know how illiterate folks will caste their vote? We do know votes can be purchased during elections in the Philippines. Is Jay’s favorite form of government, the Philippines form, good for more critical countries?
There were some in positions of power, and in command of the media who saw it fit to deny China’s WTO entry, originally scheduled for today, now delayed to Monday in view of the WTC event singularity. Do we want to give 1.3 billion people a chance at a stake in the existing world order? Now how do we see the issues? Now how do we see the MFN trade status and how do we see Falungong?
We must not failure to see the big picture (event complex), else we risk having many more simple small pictures (event singularities). The big picture is much easier to see, because, (a) it is big, and here it comes, (b) “it just is”. The big picture is about order, control, spheres of influence, coordination, co-petition, alliances, partnerships, and contingent positioning for many possible small pictures.
I am bracing for trouble in Money Rock Hong Kong and Freedom Mountain Kowloon. It turns out that Hong Kong is believably suspected of being a financial base of operation for bin Laden’s Asian activities, and if true, then it is happening within the few square kilometers we call Central, anchored by the twin towers of Exchange Square.
On a small picture note, my wife tells me the jewelry shops are drastically discounting their baubles. They are going to cash. Cost of business will rise. Customs clearing will take longer. Airline turnarounds will be slower. Container ships will be watched. Efficiency will drop dramatically, and with it, productivity. All open stock markets has dropped in the last few days, and the equity base of civilization’s foundation just got weaker. This thread should keep focus on our primary task, figuring out the navigation chart.
For the moment, I will buy when the market goes down, and sell as soon as it goes up, and today is no exception.
Best, Jay |
