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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (13538)	9/13/2001 6:20:22 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

<<That has got to be the stupidest reason for a rally I ever heard. >> Hardly. Patriotism has rallied the market before. Patriotism has rallied a sleeping giant before. What, out of curiousity makes a rally based on "sending a message to the world" stupider than a rally based on Intel reiterating capex for the umpteenth time? I have no idea -- none at all -- of what will happen when the market reopens. I will tell you that I certainly hope it doesn't crash in any way shape or form. But really, Velo. . . there have been myriad stupid reasons to rally. Sending a united message -- though improbable to me -- doesn't seem so stupid. As you well know, stocks reach fair value OVER TIME. There are snapback rallies in every bear market, as April 4th will prove. What "logical" reason was there for a turnaround at that moment in time? the freep

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (13538)	9/13/2001 6:22:17 PM
From: Rogue French Trader	Respond to of 209892

I don't know. The title of the thread implies Elliot-Wave reasoning -- about crowd theory and social mood, etc... The markets take direction from the actions of people. And usually (or lately), the markets haven't been very logical -- especially during the final bubble phase. I also agree that we should rally. I believe as well the e-wavers out there are looking for some substantial recovery here. what is it, the B upwave of grand super cycle or something? I've heard 9100 on the DOW is key support. If we hold that, I'll be a buyer tomorrow. (at least for a very tradeable bounce)

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (13538)	9/13/2001 6:28:22 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Perhaps Someone Could Explain How Maintaining Equity Prices at levels which are above their value enhances national security. My understanding was that the raison detre of capitalism is that the free market ensures that most efficient and productive allocation of capital. The effort by any means to artificially support prices has the inevitable consequence of causing capital to be invested in a manner which is not in the interest of the countries economy.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (13538)	9/13/2001 7:22:16 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

Just building on our running conversation about value and prices: What has really changed (market-wise) since this horrible event took place? Well, the Fed is pumping in enormous, unprecedented amounts of liquidity.....but they were ALREADY pumping in large amounts with decreasing (almost no effect really) leading into this week....so a massive pump from here will likely have minimal effect I'd think, and mostly short-term and symbolic (buy the Fed..) Certainly, the tragedy is going to be an expensive one. So, we have these enormous costs to absorb, which most certainly will mean an elimination of profits/losses for many companies that was not priced into the market. So, even if one thought the market was fairly valued pre-(this horrible event), that logic dictates that, at current levels, it is overvalued. I guess on the positive side, there will be some additional government spending, but much of this will not go to Nasdaq related companies.....I suppose some tech infastructure companies could benefit from some "rebuilding" buying, but I wouldn't think much.... So, overall, the negatives for the market, economy far outweigh the positives here. And I am not even going into world trade issues, add'l cost to transportation/shipping, consumer confidence issues, etc. So, it still makes sense to me that will see a short-term patrioic, manipulated rally or at least recovery (one day off lows? a few days into options ex?), but then, the market should go down again, and then, even lower, since profit prospects are certainly worse for most companies vs. last week.

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (13538)	9/13/2001 9:39:12 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Are we to no longer value stocks based on fundamentals OR speculation, but rather value them on how patriotic we are? Stock is valued strictly on what buyers are willing to pay shareholders willing to sell. Psychology is an interesting thing. Many expected the market to collapse after the Tuesday incident. If it doesn't then shorts may be the ones in a panic buy when markets reopen. I agree that patriotism will only get prices so far but the Fed has put folks on notice that money is available. If businesses are convinced that the Fed means business, and that the government is about to embark on significant fiscal stimulus they may step up to the trough also...that prospect ought to scare the Hell out of more than one COT.