Actually, we have quite a bit of agreement. I accept fully your thesis, that the principles governing our policy in the Islamic World, in the 20th Century, were not the ideals found in our Constitution and Declaration of Independence. I agree, that our governing principles, in the countries where Islamic Fundamentalism finds its recruits, has been to establish Colonialism By Proxy, leaders who served our Big Money (and local elites who benefited from this arrangement), rather than the People. And I agree, that this has had some extremely unpleasant and counterproductive effects (the Law of Unintended Consequences at work).
But, the only reason that a few CIA cowboys with suitcases full of dollars and guns, could change governments in Iran and Afghanistan, is because those governments were so corrupt and incompetent, they had zero legitimacy, and zero real support among the locals. And, if we didn't do it, someone else would have (the Soviets, the Brits or French, the Chinese, or some regional power). That is, power vacuums never remain empty for long. They get filled. So, the alternatives did not include any real sovereignty for these nations. Their social, political, and economic institutions were too weak. I know, my rationale is also weak, and morally indefensible. It amounts to saying we were the Lesser Evil.
I've got a better one: We've got a tiger by the tail, and letting go will have immediate and severe consequences. Let's say the U.S. government adopted your program. We give Jimmy Carter a second term (or would you prefer Buchanan?), apologise for all our past sins, pull out our military, abandon the local elites we've been propping up, and offer to pay reparations. Maybe, before doing that, we launch an air strike in a futile attempt to find and kill Bin Laden and his organization, in a mountainous country the size of Texas. Or would you not even do that?
What happens next? This:
1. The Islamic world sees the reparations as tribute paid by a defeated enemy. Bin Laden is a hero, from Morocco to Indonesia.
2. In short order, all our client states fall. Some of them fall to foreign attack (Hussien gets Kuwait). Some of them fall to internal uprisings (Egypt run by their own local Taliban or Khomeini). Many simply collapse into chaos, with a patchwork of warlords who murder and plunder each other and their nations for decades (Somalia and Congo writ large).
3. the price of oil goes to 60$/barrel, and then fluctuates wildly around that price, for many years. The Civilized World (that is, the wealthy market democracies) falls into a deep recession, which also lasts for years, until alternative energy technology is developed and the infrastructure built out (the cost in the 100s of billions).
4. Israel, abandoned by the U.S., ringed by Fundamentalist Islamic Emirates with hundreds of nukes, is given an ultimatum: allow all the Arab descendants of everyone who lived in British Palestine to return to their homeland, in Israel and the occupied territories, or face a Jihad. This is exactly the demand on which the recent negotiations broke down. Israel, facing a Second Holocaust, gives in. The Jews are given many promises that their lives, property, and rights will be respected. The influx of Arabs gives them a majority, and Hamas wins the next election in Israel. Arafat is executed as a Quisling who isn't radical enough. The Jewish state is abolished, the promises are all broken, and the Second Holocaust happens anyway.
5. Hundreds of organizations spring up, imitating Bin Laden's methods. This happens in every country where there is a pool of poor, disaffected, desperate people. These organizations, sometimes governments, sometimes not, they smell blood. They close in for the kill, like a pack of hyenas circling a wounded lion.
6. Use your own imagination for further secondary and tertiary effects.
So, IMO, a U.S. policy of Isolationism and Appeasement will not improve things. We tried Isolationism, after WW1. The Brits tried Appeasement, to keep the peace with Hitler. The result of Isolationism and Appeasement was WW2. This was a very expensive lesson for the Civilized World, but we learned it. So, I'm confident that letting go of the Tiger's Tail won't happen. For better or worse, we will remain Engaged, chained together with links of blood and money, with those who live on the Wrong Side Of The Tracks in the Global Village.
I have a better idea:
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JS@weareallnewyorkers.pov |
