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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (476)	9/16/2001 5:01:34 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 644

Superb post, Clark. I hope we hear more from you. Jay

To: Worswick who wrote (476)	9/16/2001 5:32:54 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 644

Clark, it has been a long time since you posted here on SI, and the joy of seeing your always wise words, is unfortunately, darkened by the events that bought you back. I agree that a straight land attack in Afghanistan is quite difficult (but no longer impossible). I think that if our own leaders understand that terrorism requires support, not just a base from which to operate, but great financial support, they will enlist, not just the defense department and the spooks, but the accountants and the finance men. Money leaves a trail, and money spigots can probably be shut off, so I hope that our leaders will not forget to use brains not just brawn. Come visit more often... Zeev

To: Worswick who wrote (476)	9/16/2001 6:00:19 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 644

Clark- Very interesting post. I wonder though. (My understanding is that) Satellite technology is much advanced in the last 10 years...something the Russians could not rely on. Although I don't dispute all the problems with terrains, isn't it much easier now to determine where camps are, and who is hiding in them.....and, thus, be able to damage the infrastructure of the enemy much more...even if you are not directly getting to bin Laden? What is your thought about Pakistan? I'd think they are a major key is they allow U.S. forces to stage from there..

To: Worswick who wrote (476)	9/17/2001 2:45:45 AM
From: Tummus1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 644

Worswick "It would be profitable at this moment to step back. It would be prudent to remind ourselves with some humility that during the 19th century the British in their innumerable wars of the 19th century suffered their single greatest military defeat of the whole century where? In Afghanistan" It would also be profitable to remember that in 1938 The United States had the sixteenth largest military in the world- smaller than Belgium's. And that by 1941 (that's three years) it had a built a military colossus capable of fighting and winning simultaneous air, naval and land wars on opposite sides of the globe against Hilter's and Tojo's (to date) unrivaled killing machines. We so often judge America by it's failures, most notably the Vietnam war, and forget that the US has achieved goals that has left the world in awe. From a rag tag revolutionary army that defeated Britain the world's greatest superpower in 1776, to a whirlwind western expansion across this continent, to placing a man on the moon, creating biotechnology, and computers. I am not engaging in jingoistic flag waving nor am I naive about the challenges that Afghanistan presents. I am simply pointing out that the US military is not that of the British in the 19th century or the Soviets in the 20th. I know that the engagements to come will result in US casualties and that it will be no Desert Storm but since Vietnam our nation's military acadamies from West Point to Annapolis devote a lot of time to teaching the mistakes of Vietnam. We have graduated a generation of military leaders like Colin Powell who have a very realistic understanding of the challenges that Afghanistan presents. They know all about the British and and Soviet experiences there. Unlike either of those situations we are not interested in occupying the country. Nor as was the case with Soviets will there be a major military power like the US providing support to them. The US will make sure that they are cut off from support as we are currently doing with Pakistan. Eventually we will use commando forces like Seal Team Six to perform surgical strikes on well defined targets. If those targets cannot be hit then Powell ( and lets face it, from here on he will probably have the most influence in these matters) will not permit such missions. I remember the pundit hand-wring that ensued when Bill Clinton took on Milosivec. Everyone, including Hitler, that had gone in to the Balkans had been defeated, was constantly repeated here on SI and in the media. How many months was it until the Serb's surrendered while the US had not one casualty? Even the military experts on Nightline were stunned. They seemed dissappointed at how staggeringly inaccuate their predictions were. I remember clearly the hand-wringing on the eve of of the Persian Gulf War when the pundits warned of a new Vietnam and that the soft flabby American military would sustain heavy casualties at the hands of Saddam's battle hardened desert warriors who had cut their teeth fighting against Iran. GI's would be returning in body bags by the thousands they said. A colleague of mine who was from India smirked that back at home "they coundn't wait to see America get it's ass kicked." My response ( and I felt sad about her naivite') was that the Iraqis had no comprehension of the the shit storm that was about to descend on them. I think that the Taliban and Osama have no comprehension of the shit storm that is about to descend on them. T

To: Worswick who wrote (476)	9/17/2001 9:06:02 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 644

Clark, One also has to remember that the British reestablished a presence after than defeat. And the Russians were hurt by the rebels being supported by the richest and most powerful nation on Earth, the USA. I doubt if anyone will dare back them against us. If we want a clue what to do, we should look to Ghengis Khan. The Mongols cut through the country like a hot knife through butter. And the religious party in Afghanistan was even more fanatic in the 13th century. Jelal-Ad-Din, the Khan of Afghanistan, was murdered by a shepherd for his boots while he was running away from the Mongols, and Jelal-Ad-Din was a fierce fighter. I'm not saying it will be easy. Just that it has and can be done. Best, Mike Burke