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To: fedhead who wrote (122998)	9/17/2001 6:24:24 PM
From: RJL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

The VIX did shoot up fairly high, but the selloff was quite orderly (like all mass media outlets are saying). Don't be fooled by the size of the decline. That was NOT capitulation.

To: fedhead who wrote (122998)	9/17/2001 9:49:34 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Anindo, imo IF it is a low, it will likely only be a short term low, to be taken out when the actual capitulation occurs. i noticed that selected sectors did well today (in a display of faulty logic, even some RE related stocks were sought after), and that in itself is suspicious. my impression of today's action was not that the fear of losing one's capital reigned. anecdotally, most people seemed much more concerned with catching the inevitable, eventual low. a low pre-announced on TV today, just as happened in late March, presumably to make sure that no-one misses out. true, the market is technically oversold, and that raises the chance for a bounce, maybe even a big one. but to me the weakness into the close in spite of the efforts by the authorities detailed in earlier posts means that there's a black hole somewhere gobbling up all the liquidity. at a true capitulation bottom, the fear is palpable...you can smell it, so to speak. today was more like a bothersome chore...you know, like 'let's sell them down some, put in the low, and then we can rally again'. the treasury secretary promising new highs for the Dow within 12 months isn't exactly re-assuring me either.