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To: GST who wrote (131381)9/17/2001 8:33:34 PM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
>The Marionette of Wall Street -- Abby Joseph Cohen has been rumored to be able to speak even while drinking a glass of water -- more evidence that her prediction of S&P500 to rally +38% (to 1500) by year-end is likely "wired" by Uncle Goldman. No respectable analyst, however bullish, would make such a strong projection in the current fundamental environment! Goldman-Sachs' earnings are largely dependent upon a continuation of the bull market -- Ms. Cohen's personal holdings in GS stock may offer a partial clue to her published outlook -- GS insiders collectively may offer even more perspective. According to Edgar Online, there are several accounts of interest: Abby Joseph Cohen, The Abby Joseph Cohen 2000 Family Trust, The Abby Joseph Cohen 2000 Annuity Trust I, The Abby Joseph Cohen 2001 Annuity Trust I, The Abby Joseph Cohen 2001 Annuity Trust II. For the period of September 25, 2000 through November 10, 2000 Ms. Cohen personally sold 10,000 shares and GS insiders sold 7,897,714 shares. During the time of these sales, the GS stock price ranged from $130's to $80's, at an average of about $100 per share, that's $790 million for insiders and $1 million for Ms Cohen. It was on September 14, 2000 when Ms. Cohen announced in public her projections of DJIA 12600 and SP500 1575 by year end (2000). The most recent Edgar data shows GS insiders sold 6,677,370 shares from 6/27/2001 through 8/3/2001 with the GS stock price between $80 and $91.50 -- that amounts to $534M to $611M. It was after this bout of selling (8/21/2001) that Ms. Cohen announced that she was lowering her year-end S&P500 projection from 1550 to only 1500.



To: GST who wrote (131381)9/18/2001 1:00:18 AM
From: Paul Merriwether  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
>." Instead we get all kinds of absurd and references to patriotic rallies

I have to agree with you on that one! Even bloomberg is going hoarse, talking about "people who have never invested before buying a piece of American business(for patriotic reasons)". Is patriotism so cheap? The big houses unload shares on the small investor, during a highly uncertain period. I for one would rather see the money go into charities for affected people than get wired into a bigger bonus for a goldman partner!



To: GST who wrote (131381)9/18/2001 2:28:32 AM
From: schrodingers_cat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Hi GST

I think that, even without the terrorists, the market would have sunk. Somewhat unnoticed among all the other news was a big fall in the UMich consumer confidence number. Given the importance of the consumer in holding up the economy, this would have given the market a very bad day if it had been open at the time. I suspect we would not be far from where we are now.

The impact of the attack is difficult to guess IMO. There is going to be a lot of fiscal stimulus from Washington and we have already seen interest rate cuts both here and in Europe. OTOH consumer confidence is going to take a big hit at a very critical time, and a fair bit of production has been lost over the past week. If consumer confidence does not quickly recover then a deep and extended recession looks likely.

Today's drop in the market was pretty much what I expected, but the next few days are going to be very interesting.