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To: cheryl williamson who wrote (45389)	9/19/2001 7:21:08 PM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

My personal one-guy's-opinion is that markets hate uncertainty mostly because people hate uncertainty. People can buy online and a side-effect of this tragedy may indeed be some increase in e-commerce. But I think they're less likely to want to spend on discretionary goods when they imagine a sword hanging over their heads. (Also to me it's a pretty grim vision to think of commerce moving towards the internet because American citizens are reluctant to congregate. That seems like a victory for the bad guys, not for technology or entrepreneurship.) I believe the most important thing by far is reassurance, the removal of doubt and uncertainty, and that depends more than anything else on intelligence. Finding out the nature and magnitude of the threat, which at this time we appear not to know. Bin Laden is a symbol because we need one. Who knows, he could be just a middle man. The one thing that was definitively proved by this horror is that we are flying at least partially blind. Our intelligence apparatus has been starved to the point where it totally missed a huge, logistically complex, multi-year terrorist operation involving at least dozens of people and possibly hundreds operating on US soil. Who knows how many more of them are out there and what they're up to? The hardest thing is fighting an enemy you can't see, as we learned in Viet Nam. The air of doubt that these bad guys have worked to create could easily combine with the anti-wealth-effect from already-deflated assets--now further deflated of course--and other substantial economic consequences of the attack to produce a major reduction in consumer spending. This holiday season will tell the story. Of course if there are any further episodes, God forbid, all bets are off. I would be happy to triple the portion of my taxes that pays for personnel in the FBI and the CIA to infiltrate the enemy's organization. I don't think sabre-rattling and flag waving, and even the arrest of Bin Laden himself, is a substitute for GWB going on TV and saying: "We've cracked their code. We understand who is involved and how many, and we're going to get 'em. The enemy is no longer invisible." At that point markets will recover IMHO. Until then it will be difficult. --QS

To: cheryl williamson who wrote (45389)	9/20/2001 5:19:03 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 64865

Dear Cheryl: Perhaps I am just a Pollyanna but here is the way I see it. This heinous crime has resulted in a National Unity and Resolve not seen since WWII. Political bickering has ended, in fact I heard Dick Moriss say last night that in his opinion the political process has ended. So now, our leaders are going to work as one not only to root out this evil but also to rebuild America and put our economy back on solid footing. All the petty arguements about SS are for now a thing of the past, now, from what I see and hear its WHATEVER IT TAKES attitude. When the energies of the Govt come together in a solid front I dont see how even a recession can last. Sure this may drag on till year end as it takes time for the machinery of the Govt to get in motion but its certainly headed that way--see airline bailout. People have fear at the moment, but unless the terrorists can sustain their campaign, which I doubt they can in a major way (not saying there will not be a few suicide bombers in the interim) this fear will gradually subside. Its against human nature and certainly American nature to fear anything for very long. Ask any of the combat vets on this thread, you start out shitting your pants and in a while its just second nature and you do your job you were trained for. I say same will happen here with Civilians. JDN