To: yard_man who wrote (124102 ) 9/20/2001 12:01:44 AM From: Earlie Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258 Earlie from Earlie: A few random thoughts before heading for the sack: I have, for several years, viewed the sardine-like geographic compression of our respective financial districts into over-populated high rise jungles as insane. Given the excellent communications networks in place, this makes little sense. The commutes are mind numbing, and the associated costs staggering. Perhaps we will (finally) see a vast "decentralizing" of this industry as well as many others. I for one would applaud it. I fly my own aircraft. Why? For any trips of less than 800 miles, I can easily compete with the airlines with respect to both time and actual out-of-pocket costs (including aircraft amortization, which is next to nil). And I can leave when I want and travel directly to the smallest community. Many corporations have already moved to private aircraft ownership to ensure the safety and productive use of the time of their top talent (note... not just executives). It would not surprise me to see general aviation acquire a bit of expansion, once things calm down a bit. I note that the old master W.B. himself already owns Flight Safety Intl., (a large flight training company) as well as considerable ownership of companies that provide "fractional aircraft ownership". While my research has forced me into the "confirmed bear for the foreseeable future" camp, nevertheless, it is foolish to expect the markets to move in only one direction for any extended period of time. We have experienced one heck of a lengthy "down" period of late and hence a sizeable rally is both to be expected and probable. Short positions have been burgeoning of late in many stocks and some of these positions are held by folks who are new to the game. Some hefty short squeezes are inevitable over the near term, given this situation. IMHO, it is even more dangerous to become complacent when short than when long. To this point in time, the U.S. government has exercised both restraint and intelligence in not responding to the potent public desire for immediate visible revenge. This is most commendable. Yes, we would all derive much satisfaction in witnessing those who were responsible for last week's horrendous crimes punished, but it isn't going to be an easy task to find those responsible and it may be even more difficult to provide them with their just desserts. I hope that this approach prevails. The current global "printing operation" has few if any historical antecedents and appears to be accelerating. Where massive money printing exercises have occurred in the past, they have invariably ended in major tragedies. Yet to this point in time, the financial press has hardly noticed, never mind examined the respective issues. How can something of this magnitude remain in the bushes? Can a lid be maintained on gold for much longer under such circumstances? Most investors are finally becoming aware of the fact that the third quarter has been a disaster. Unfortunately few seem to be aware of the fact that the fourth quarter is shaping up to be a complete bust. As this realization dawns on both fund managers as well as individual investors, does this knowledge just expand the current funk? Probably. Given the tightening spiral, one has to ask the question, "What might postpone or at least delay the approaching global recession/depression?" I can see few things other than a situation that requires a move to a "war-time footing" as being able to accomplish this. Given current events, such an eventuality is no longer just a "remote possibility". Being a bear requires that we examine more than just normal probabilities. Sack time. Best, Earlie