Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (55130)	9/20/2001 1:38:32 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

bearshark, I remember the false signals from the 5-day as the bubble inflated. Quite frustrating to me at the time. I note, however, that the 10-day has only reached the 1.5+ area (for even a single day) twice since mid-'98 (the extent of my own data). The first was in mid-March of this year (going over 1.5 for five days out of six and reaching 1.66) and in mid-August (over 1.5 for five straight days). The April rally began about three weeks after the first 1.5+ reading. Given about the same lag (and I don't know if there's been such a lag in earlier years), we were about due for a good, tradable run (if not more). The WTC/Pentagon events changed things and made these sorts of technical indicators temporarily useless, IMO. Of course, we'll never know what would have happened, but it wouldn't be reasonable to say the August signal was "false" (not that you said that) just because an external shock caused the market to go the other way. I would also caution against reading much into any technical indicator right now - either way. Bob