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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (8338)	9/20/2001 8:13:07 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

dabum, all you and others here are doing is to project your own fear onto the market. Gottfried

To: chowder who wrote (8338)	9/20/2001 10:38:20 PM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

I don't disagree with you. It is interesting that we have been in a Falling Trading Channel for more than a year. The WTC event was just a small gap down on the daily Naz and doesn't even show up on the monthly chart. <img src="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$COMPQ,uu[g,a]mhclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3][J1484383,Y]"> Likewise the Dow has also been in a long gentle FTC. However, right after Labor Day it dropped into a much steeper FTC that has some of the ugliest red candles you will ever see. <img src="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$INDU,uu[g,a]dhclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3][J948401,Y]"> Until some catalyst comes along, I think the Naz will continue zig zagging down the FTC. None of the indicators tell me that anything has changed to take it out of the channel. The Dow, on the other hand, is not quite so overvalued on a historical basis, but a support trend line going back to the 1987 crash will give a lot of support at about 7400, if it stays in the same FTC. If it begins basing, then the level could be quite a bit higher, but it will take longer to start back up. Before the days of "irrational exuberance" the market was driven primarily by earnings, tempered by exogenous events. I think we are are returning to those times. Unfortunately, it is going to be some time before earnings stop driving the market down and start driving it up. But, we have a much stronger president than we thought. He is rising to the occasion. So, we are starting to see some glimmers of light in the tunnel. But, I plan to keep most of my powder dry for some time to come. When the charts tell me the market has turned, then I will begin to begin to cover my shorts and go long. God Bless America, JRH