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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (15115)	9/20/2001 9:00:44 PM
From: mightylakers	Respond to of 196500

Since Korea has symmetrical royalties Who said that? If one thing the Chinese understand.. That is import/export.. And they will understand more after entering WTO. Imagine if you will.. Korean/Chinese JV produces phone in China.. I won't rule out the under the table deal totally, but that chance is very slim. First, a 50 50 JV won't cut it. So Koreans have to give up the ownership, which, in compare with the royalty issue, may present far more concerns for the Koreans. Think about it, even with a 100% ownership, the foreign companies are still worrying about the investment safety in China, let alone a JV with minority stake. I'm not sure they are willing to give up that control. Now Domestic Phone Distributor sells phones to Company B which in turn exports them to some Third World Country like Venezuela or New Zealand Unless they smuggling the phones, which although happening all the time, won't constitute that much a difference because of it's ma and pa kind of scale.

To: pcstel who wrote (15115)	9/20/2001 10:34:14 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196500

<They say that China Unicom's CDMA subs will top 50 million in 2005.. Have you ever figured the royalties on 50 million $100 phones @ 2.5% royalty... $125 million bucks on 50 million subs!!! Yawnnn!!> Subscribers around 50 million by 2005 in China with new subscribers in China at the rate of 30 million a year by then. Plus handset replacements due to wear and tear and upgrades of 15 million per year = 45 million CDMA handsets per year sold for use in China. With 1.3 billion people in China, at 30 million people per year it would take 30 years to get to 70% of them using a CDMA phone. I don't think it will take 30 years! I think the rate will continue to increase past 30 million per year. I expect that by 2010 there will something like 200 million CDMA phones per year selling in China. GSM will have died [being overlaid with 3G and 4G and 5G services - with OFDM data links and multimode functionality with software defined radio; RadioOne]. 200 million x 2.5% x $100 [Y2K dollars] = $500 million per year just on royalties. Then add ASICs, BREW, Eudora, PayPal, SnapTrack, PacketVideo and their income should be not too bad from China. Okay, I admit $500 million per year royalties won't be all that good compared with the other things. But that's just cellphone royalties. They will produce a LOT of other CDMA devices too and many people will have 3 CDMA devices, not one, by 2010. Exports at 7% royalty would help the bottom line too. Cellphones are high-usage short-lived products. Replacement rates are very high [a year or two] with no second-hand market to speak of. I have today bought another Telecom New Zealand CDMA phone [Samsung] for another daughter, trading in my prepay Vodafone GSM phone which they will destroy. I believe Telecom's CDMA sales are going flat out here. Smuggled CDMA phones are apparently booming in China. Every smuggled CDMA phone has a QUALCOMM ASIC in it and is another customer for CDMA instead of GSM. Mqurice