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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (56046)	9/22/2001 3:37:04 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 275872

tgptndr, re: cheapo stocks: on 64 bit play: 1. AMD is a joke. The real competition will be sun. I am looking to pick up some sunw as well next week. If Intel screws up CPQ,HP will be screwed. IBM and Sun will do well. In this scenario sun's stock will be 10x where it is now. Frankly for < $40 one can buy one share each in sun,amd,intel. Thats seems like a compelling play to me. 2. PIV I think if you figure Jackson technology, 0.13 micro leading to 3+Ghz clock speeds, and SSE2 the PIV is no longer a dud. Just my .02. 3. Valuations I can see intel selling 150M+ chips/yr in 3 years or so. If AMD screws up they will be able to easily add $50 to current ASP's (some would argue $100). Thats $7.5Bn in profit/yr. At a PE of 30x thats $200bn in additional valuation alone. And that assumes flash,telecom, merced etc are ALL a BUST. So clearly there is scope for a huge increase in INTC valuation. And if merced and derivatives are succesfull you can see 2M chips/yr at an ASP of 2000. With cost of $300 or so the profits on server chips could dwarf current intel profits alone. I am NOT smart enough to pick the winner but knowing we have a HUGE market and only a few players at rock bottom prices could give us a buying opportunity of a lifetime. If one could buy all 3 stocks for under $30 that would an opportunity one should grab and not let go. regards, Kash

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (56046)	9/22/2001 5:10:52 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

TGPTNDR, Re: "The PIV is a crock. It's the best thing that could have happened for AMD. INTC's going to be screwing around with this thing for 3 years before they get another design out." Nonsense. Look at the strides the Pentium 4 has already made. It is already pushing faster frequencies than any other CPU that exists, and it's performance already beats the best thing AMD has to offer (although this may be challenged with AMD's next round of products). As the platform matures further, this advantage will only increase. With extra cache, higher frequencies on .13u, 533MHz front side bus, and more software optimizations (all coming next year), I can't see how you can call it a crock. At the worst, if SOI gives AMD a significant frequency advantage and allows the Athlon to scale within 20% of the Pentium 4, then Intel may be performance challenged. But frankly, performance parity is all that Intel needs with the Pentium 4 right now. "Hammer is out next year.(But will it be any good or will it be a dud.)" But when next year? AMD's own roadmap has Hammer going through multiple delays, yet the AMD Hopefuls think Hammer is on the verge being released. I think the timing on this product can make a big difference. If AMD is late, or misses 2002, I don't think their K7 products can hold on to the performance crown. "Jackson Technology(SMT) -- don't be silly -- SMP blows it away." SMT doesn't replace SMP. It adds to it. Watch what happens when you see dual Hyperthreaded Prestonia processors running circles around the competition. "And Multicore Multithread(should I cr MM or McMt?) should be better still." And who will have that in the near future? Certainly not Hammer. The rumor that it might have been multicore looks to be a lost cause, and multicore with multithreading is nearly out of the question at this point in time. "Having said all that, let me say that's from the software side of the shop today. In 3 years SMT on MM is going to be HOT, but it won't be PIV & I don't think it'll be a Merced derivative." At IDF, Intel said that future Itanium Processors will have multithreading and multicore. Let's see what shows up in 3 years. If you're right, then Itanium will be "HOT". "INTC must have had AAPL in mind as their chief competitor when they started the PIV design." I could have seen jabs like this 6 months ago, but now this comes across as coming from someone who is far behind the times. wanna_bmw