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To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (24167)	9/22/2001 7:43:49 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Jock, I have posted everytime I sold my LSI at various points last year and indicated the net average sale price all the time. Of course, I didn't get out at the top. Almost nobody can, other than by sheer luck. I have been substantially out of the market ever since Bob Brinker gave the call on Jan 14, 2000. I hung on to LSI, which I sold at various points during the year, and to a small overseas fund position and when it started behaving like the S&P 500, I got out of even that one by August 2000. Re: your portfolio that I am tracking, yes, you were right to the day in picking the market bottom, but you were wrong in your selection of stocks! Are you aware how much you were down before 09/11? Most of your stocks had breached their April levels long before that tragic day. What has happened since that horrific day is that the P/E compression has accelerated and resulted in declines over one week that would have normally taken a few months. In some sense, the exogenous event has come as a very convenient excuse to some people -- people like Addi, who were bullish all through the 18-month bear-market. Now they can heap all the blame on that. They can now go around claiming that they were never wrong and would have been proved right, were it not for that incident! What a shame! And what makes you think I was touting bonds? All I said was that your portfolio will have to do 21% year over year to beat the T-bond over the next 5 years. However, I do agree that we will be seeing a great buying opportunity in the next year or so. But I don't think it will be as great as the one that we got in 1974 (that made Buffett comment that he felt like "an oversexed guy in a whorehouse"!). Already the Dow dividend yield is at 2.17%. The 5-year high is 2.21%, recorded in 1996. So things are getting better. If the major indexes get close to what they were on the day before Netscape went public (around 600 on the S&P 500 and about 5800 on the Dow), we can put the whole internet mania behind us and look forward. I won't ask you how much higher the market will be in 5 years' time, because I don't see any point in asking that question. After all, you were the one who said that the Nasdaq will not go down to 2000, and here we are now! In fact, the Nasdaq 100 which was as high as 4800 at its highs, is perilously close to 1000 right now. Regarding my portfolio's performance in the late 90's, I did quite well, thank you! I understand that investing is not so much about how much you make as about how much you keep. I personally know of several people who thought they had done better than me a couple of years ago, and who now find, to their chagrin, that that's no longer true.

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (24167)	9/23/2001 10:32:02 PM
From: Andy M.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25814

Jock, I'm not sure how you drew the conclusion that I thought we wouldn't win the war against terrorism (I like to think we will "win," but if winning means completely eliminating all those hostile to the U.S. and willing to attack it, I doubt that will happen; maybe it's better to hope for a high level of control over terrorism). I just used the uncertainty the terrorism has brought as a way of contextualizing my simple, direct question as to why you thought LSI and other stocks were undervalued right now. I'm surprised that you, one of the self-proclaimed handful of experts on LSI (yes, I remember that post of a few years ago very well), is not more willing to talk on point about it. I'm surprised that no one wants to respond to posts that try to talk about LSI's specific prospects By the way, you and Addi are being unfair to Dipy. Though I don't think he should imagine that the decline since the attacks was an inevitable part of the bubble bursting, he was rightly cautious before that and, Addi, he acted: he took his money off the table, which is just as much an action as putting it on the table. He's also talking about putting it back in within the next year. He's just trying to make as much money as he can, like the rest of us. As far as his "hubris" goes, Jock, he has a far bigger reason to be proud of his calls than you. Your only credential, which you bring up a lot, is your call on LSI, emphasizing how you were only two days from the top. But of course, you missed the top by 20%, and there were many opportunities to sell higher than you did. I know because I unloaded part of my position at a better price. Then there are your doomed calls on BRNC and XRX, which you made on this thread in the "hubristic" flush of your LSI glory. Plus there's Dipy's merciless tracking of your recent calls (calling the general April bottom means nothing if you use the opportunity to invest in stocks that proceed to tank), which must mean that there is something wrong with the way Dipy is reading the markets and that he's thrown in the towel on America. Since you began participating on this thread years ago, your posts (including some of your most recent) have often been arrogant, pompous, and bullying. Give it a rest until you can say something more constructive about LSI. Andy