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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andy M. who wrote (24180)	9/24/2001 3:56:12 AM
From: uu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Andy/Dipy: <A bit OffTopic but then again maybe not> Andy you state: > By the way, you and Addi are being unfair to Dipy. And then you also make the following comments to Jock: "... your posts (including some of your most recent) have often been arrogant, pompous, and bullying. Give it a rest until you can say something more constructive about LSI. Andy, the point I would make comes at the end after going through a bit of history/explanations. And to begin with let me first start by saying that Economy is about people. There is really no magic to it. It is all about people - and perhaps that is why it is so moody and no one can predict it for which basic human emotions are also unpredictable. During a market uptrend all the optimists are market gurus, and in a market downtrend all the pessimists are market gurus. The pessimists in an uptrend market are viewed as a bunch of morons, but will eventually see their day in the sun - as markets do fluctuate and it is never a straight way up. And similarly the optimists during a market downtrend are also viewed as morons - but they too see their day in the sun (again simply because markets do fluctuate and eventually go up and set new highs). Now things become a bit interesting when you have Dipys of the world who are pessimists to begin with (and I am not talking about markets but life in general). They always predict the gloom-and-doom regardless of whether markets are in uptrend , or downtrend modes. And if you do not believe me just show me one positive - and only one will do - statement Dipy has ever made during the past few years about stocks such as LSI (which he claims he was invested) - even during the market uptrends of the past few years (during the time that he claims he bought the stock). Seriously, I want to see one - and only one - positive statement he has ever made about any tech stocks (and in particular the likes of LSI that he claims he was invested in). I recall back when he said he was invested in the stock and he was bashing the company I wondered why he bought the stock to begin with and I believe I asked him in one of my posts. His response was that he only had invested a very small tiny fraction of his well diversified portfolio in the stock - which still did not explain to me if he was so pessimistic about the company why on earth he bought the stock to begin with). The fact is someone like Dipy always complains and never acts. He is the type of guy that if stock (in particular a tech stock) is at $20 he comes up with some self-rightous logic for its overvaluations, and then (assuming he thinks of it as a long term play) he says to himself, I will buy the stock when it comes to $10, and when it comes down to $10 he says I will buy when it comes to $5,and when it comes to $5 he says I buy when it is at $3, and so on. But he really never ends up buying it. And then when the stock starts going up he gets upset (although does not show it) and then tries very hard to justify his lack of action in buying the stock basing it on the company being overvalued, or something else, etc. Similarly, he never takes actions in shorting stocks even though he claims (as he has) that stocks are overvalued, etc. etc. (the usual typical Dipy logic). And instead he just sits there without doing anything. While if he truly believes in what he talks about he would act and who knows he may even make a few dollars. But of course as he has admitted he does not act upon his convictions (which is indeed rather strange). And what is so different about Dipy than most other pessimists I have come accross in real life, or in cyberspace is that he (stricly based on satisfying his ego and arrogance) ends up enjoying watching others who made a lot of money during the uptrend (while he was calling it insane times) suffering during the downtrend we are having now. It is sort of like the guy who never drives for being afraid of getting into an accident and then when he sees someone involved in a driving accident he tells them "I told you so, didnt I? I told you would get into an accident if you drove!", and then laughs and passes by! I guarantee you that he will not do a thing as he always believes techs are overvalued no matter what. And when the time comes again for such stocks to go up he goes into his inner anger mode and tries very hard to justify his action for not investing in the stock through his usual overvaluation logic (and literally all his posts on SI as far as I can remember are the proof of that)! And as why he invested in LSI, I still have a hard time understanding it for which his posts never indicated that he believes in the company - and that to me is the strangest of all. He migh have as well bought a Lotto instead of buying the stock! Anyway, my point is please do not try to come up with some logic explaining Dipy's investment justification and then calling others as having the arrogance of being unfair to him! And since on the subject of arrogance, Let me give you a context/analogy in which Dipy can perhaps be understodd a bit better: In 1992 Ross Perot was going around saying he was against special interest groups, and how they were going to bring down the country. Someone said how on earth he could say that when he (i.e. Ross Perot) himself was 'THE' special interest group in Washington! Similarly how can you call others as being so arrogant to be unfair to Dipy, when Dipy himself is "THE" mother of all arrogance and being unfair to others! :)

To: Andy M. who wrote (24180)	9/24/2001 3:30:34 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Andy, I have noticed that part of the "hubris" of the tech investors is that they simply take it for granted that a 100% up move will be just the beginning of a new bull-market for techs. Imagine a 100% move! It could take years even in good times. I don't see how techs can be undervalued when so many people have such high expectations of those stocks and I don't see how they can be bargains when so many are lapping them up. If the government intervenes and stops stocks from sliding (which it probably has to), these stocks will stay where they are for the next 5 years or even longer. And that is the best case scenario.

To: Andy M. who wrote (24180)	9/24/2001 6:12:28 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Andy: I not only called the top to LSI by two days, but I predicted in a very long well reasoned post a year prior to that why LSI would hit 160 (now a split adjusted 80) In that post, I listed over 20 reasons why LSI would hit that price. And your representaion that "there were many opportunities to sell higher than you did. I know because I unloaded part of my position at a better price" is patently false. Your problem is that the facts get in the way or your use of the word many. There were exactly 14 days that the price was at or above the price at which I sold--hardly many by my definition. Nice try. Dipy has always been a bear here, and his so-called unloading doesn't square with his other posts. As for his holdings on LSI, I would suggest that you look over his posts over the past four years. To be kind, his statements of what he owned and when he owned LSI are inconsistent. Not only have his holdings been misrepesented, but several times he claimed to have had 60 percent of his money in LSI, while at the same time dissing the company and preaching moderation. Now that's arrogant and pompous. As far as Dipy's well documented "merciless tracking" of my April call, let me remind you of a less than "merciless tracking" of Dipy's so-called bet with me wherein I bet him dinner that he could not pick any one of six stocks that would outperform LSI within a year's period of time. He took the bet, and failed. The odds of that being just a lucky call on my behalf are one in sixty four. I then PMed Dipy to arrange for me to fly out to his hometown and have him take me out to dinner. He reneged. So he can document my short-term failures all he wants, but when it came time to put up or shut up, he punted.Apparently honoring his word is not part of Dipy's coda. As far as my picks on XRX and BRNC were concerned, I was wrong, and I continue to hold BRNC at an average of about 11 bucks, so it is a big loser. ( I loved it at 20, loved it at 12, loved at 8, loved it at 3, and I still love it) The guy who is head of BRNC, Steve Braun is one hell of a guy, and I'd would go to war with him any time. My pick of BRNC will make me money over time. I also took a bath on XRX. My greatest strength as a trader and an investor is my ability to quickly admit what I did wrong, improve, and move on. XRX sucked. But I also have core holdings, which I will hold for six months to two years. And, by far my single largest core holding is NSM, which I rolled into last Dec for tax purposes from a loss on LSI, which I reentered into at the low 30s after having sold my prior position. LSI then went to 17, and I was truly fortunate enough to get in NSM at 17 and change. It has outperformed LSI by a wide margin this year, and my pick of NSM is sheer luck. Thus, as of today, I am about 8 points from breaking even over the past year on my major holding. I am confident that I will do well. AS far as Dipy's calculatons about stocks having to go up 400 percent etc. the facts are that many stocks move in a two to three hundred percent range in a year. Was I right about the market bottom? Yes. Was I in the wrong groups? Yes. But if one looks at the growth prospects of these companies, my picks will still come out ahead. As a trader, I knew that when JNPR reported a bad outlook when it was at 40 that the short term party was over, and I played it that way. But for the sake of my portfolio, I am still confident that it will come out ahead. By the way, did we hit a market low today. No.