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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (144003)	9/24/2001 10:20:08 AM
From: willcousa	Respond to of 186894

Mary, you provoked a thought. These terrorists have no ability or desire to create or build, only to destroy. Thus, they are of no real help or value to anyone except the like-minded. That will be their ultimate unmaking.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (144003)	9/24/2001 12:07:31 PM
From: tcmay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Bang for the Buck "I believe, as you do, that it is dangerous not to look at reality and facing it square on. Not facing up to reality will be dangerous. Let's look at reality. Let's look at the strengths of the terrorists and compare their capabilities against the capabilities of their opposition - or people that they hate. I am not suggesting that the terrorists can not do a great deal of harm and inflict tremendous evil, but let's examine the cards they hold." "They learned how to sign up for Hotmail (or something like it), they learned to use Travelocity to book their travel, they used the Internet to coordinate their activities, they used the communications financial infrastructure to receive money to finance their activities, and they receive rudimentary flight training from our educational infrastructure, they were able to keep fit in a health club owned by a small business owner, and they were able to recruit a small number of people willing to committ suicide." They primarily planned and communicated by face-to-face meetings and, when needed, by overnight FedEx letters (sent from Kinko's, Mailboxes Etc., etc.). Estimated total costs for the known number of agents was less than $200K, and they returned the "change" to a site in the UAE the week before 911. They used our systems well, and there is very little that could be done to stop such planning and communication. (I point out the overnight FedEx letters because some of the Usual Suspects are already proposing infringements on our constitutional rights by limiting the use of crypto, for example.) "Lined up against them are the people that created and built the Internet, financial institutions, transportation infrastructure, educational establishment, and small business entrepreneurs." "Take a look at what it took for them to destroy what they destroyed. And, also take a look what it took to build what they destroyed. What did it take to create the vision of the World Trade Center? What did it take to generate the financing? What did it take to design and construct the World Trade Center? What did it take to create the 50,000 jobs that housed the WTC? and, what did it take to assemble the thousands of firefighters and emergency rescue workers willing to risk their lives to save the lives of others?" Precisely. For an expenditure of less than $200K, the attackers did direct physical damage of roughly $20 billion. A 100,000x force magnification factor...something any military would love to have. (Yeah, the 20 hijackers died, but this many have died in suicide bombs in Israel in just a matter of months. Agents are cheap.) Also, the impact on the enemy was greater than the $20 billion direct physical damage estimate. The markets in America lost $1.38 trillion in value last week (though some of this will come back, so such estimates are iffy). "I think you overestimate the power of evil and grossly underestimate the power of good." I view the issue in cost-benefit terms, in military terms. What I saw was that the "power of good" that you talk about, the financing and building of the WTC complex, was defeated by the "power of evil" for a relatively paltry sum, with the aforementioned 100,000-fold force magnification factor. A lot more bang for the buck than in simply strapping on dynamite and walking into a crowd! What this shows is that high tech societies are vulnerable to vengeance-motivated attackers. Technology provides a long lever. Issues of "good" and "evil" are not terribly useful in analyzing the situation. --Tim May

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (144003)	9/24/2001 5:02:48 PM
From: Ali Chen	Respond to of 186894

"Your ability to jump to conclusions is making, Dan, Pete, and Ali seem like sweethearts." Jump on not to jump, time will tell. But your inability to make any conclusions at all, or see consequences beyond your nose is staggering. Let me give you an example or yours, Message 16405842 You wrote: "This was a low tech and low resource effort. There was nothing that required an IQ of more than one standard deviation below normal." Interesting. In first TV interviews with CIA/FBI officials, they said that all considered scenarios so far were about chemical/biological/nuclear attack, and the use of civilian planes as flying bombs were not even in remote consideration... Are you therefore questioning the IQ levels of those reputable institutions, or what?