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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizard who wrote (8782)	9/25/2001 12:46:16 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

This is our war-hardened enemy? guardian.co.uk

To: Wizard who wrote (8782)	9/25/2001 1:18:20 AM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

The answer is 6. If msft gets to the upper 60's they'll be double that or more based on 2003 estimates. Meanwhile there are other software companies selling for 3 times sales or less. Is it worth that much more than other companies? No matter how hard they try, they are still tied to the pc anchor. If this is a throw away quarter for msft, then it's a throw away quarter for the others as well. I know a manager of a computer super store and pc's aren't selling. AND they don't expect that they will after XP is introduced either. They aren't planning on placing alot of orders for pc's and plan little in the way of promotions for XP. They consider it money down the drain. What IS selling? DVD's, Digital Cameras, Playstations, Cell Phones. Does he expect that XBox will be a success? He thinks they will sell some, but Sony will out do them by a mile and they'll probably get into a pricing war. Meanwhile.... Symc had huge promotions for Win 95. They plan on doing little and don't think it's going to make a difference to pc sales. Some of their employees do think that eventually XP will put PC Anywhere out of biz though. They thought the XP OS was pretty good, but don't plan on buying it themselves and these are techies! As for my friends... we all have home networking with a minimum per house use of 3 computers. None of us is going to upgrade or buy a new pc.... even though ours are not new pcs. They work, they ain't broke, and we have no intention of wasting time configuring this, that or the other. Enough with changing around the pc. It's definately not a productive use of my time. And would I consider paying for a copy of windows for each pc just because it's more stable? LOL! NOT! It's not so much the money, I don't see a need for it. And if I have a hosed drive, am I going to be happy to waste time trying to get msft to authorize me to install it on the new drive? I don't think so. If companies don't want to spend on servers and security software, are they going to spend on upgrading computers or a new OS? No place I've worked at would place a priority on that when times were tough. If we could get by with what we had, we did. I bet there are plenty of computers sitting around unused anyway. Why buy more? To say that msft is in better shape than the other software companies is to say that onis and cien were in better shape than the other optical stocks. Did it help them out? Nope. They weren't immune either even though it was thought that they were. I do not think that no one is going to buy msft products. Obviously they sell ALOT. Obviously they have plenty of cash and they are spinning off even more. I do think that there will be some buying of pcs when XP comes out and some for xmas. I think they'll sell quite a few XBoxes and software to go with it. However, I think that corporations and consumers will ease into the new OS next year. I'll probably get a new flat panel screen, but still don't plan on getting a new box.... not till I need it. Kind of like the telco's buying FO parts.... I have enough power to do what I need so why buy more? It will only come down in price and the power will be even better a year or two from now. By that time, there will probably be something that soaks up the power in addtion to the OS, so I'll probably need a new pc. This is a bear market, and if msft gets back to the upper 60's without a significant rise in other software stocks, it's too expensive in relation to other software companies, no matter what kind of tax advantages they get from employee stock option grants and it's a good hedge. I doubt it goes much above there and won't rule out new 52 week lows. The only thing that would change my mind is a significant rise in other software stocks, raised guidance from msft or an economy that is improving. Yeah... I know your econ is bad up there. Got a call from a head hunter looking for my husband.... not to offer him a job. He was hoping he was hiring down here in Southern California. Imagine that! No chance, of course.... we've been laying off too. None of us will be safe again. We can only pray for peace and be alert. TA