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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (8630)	9/25/2001 2:22:33 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Dear PUZZLED, You wrote, "I'm curious as to why people are willing to take a loss to the downside, to insure they are in near the bottom and they are unwilling to give up half of that loss to the upside, to insure the trend has in fact turned positive. [signed] da-puzzled-bum" It's called greed, but a special kind of greed. Short term greed. Gimme long term greed any day of the week. In fact, gimme long term, low risk greed if'n you don't mind. Signed, Dear Abby

To: chowder who wrote (8630)	9/25/2001 2:42:25 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Brother Bum, It's because no one can predict a bottom, and when the market turns most investors are kinda like those four legged creatures we see on the side of the road driving through a forest at night. I suspect we will retest the lows or even go lower, but if you're nimble, you can trade into the lows of the market. Sold 1/2 of my JNPR and TSM yesterday near the highs and bought them both back today. Over time as we retest the lows you can make profits (lower costs) trading into the market. JMHO, Jim

To: chowder who wrote (8630)	9/25/2001 4:21:30 PM
From: CpsOmis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

>>I continue to see where people are willing to get into a stock early, willing to take a 20-25% paper loss, if necessary, to gamble that they can catch the bottom. I continue to see this type of thinking across all of the threads. Had that way of thinking with NBR at 44 bucks (after it dropped from 60) I threw a lot of money at it, and ultimately sold for a 16 grand loss at 40. Now that it is at 19 bucks, I realize I would have lost closer to 125 grand had I 'hung tough'. An individual that helped kill the SD thread once stated: I've noted the smarter people , the college professor/brilliant types seem to have a harder time accepting a loss when they are 'right'. Transalation...extraordinary logical understanding of cash flows, future trends, market share etc. won't help you if you are fighting a trend created by stampeding steers. The more I have learned to take a loss (or a gain) and turn tail and run when it becomes apparent the tide is washing me to sea, the better off I have been. (However, this same logic left a lot of money on the table a month back during the 'fake +3 AGA' debacle. However....I MAY have just preserved my capital in the process had it been true. On the other hand, I was back in shorting NG hard and heavy when it became obvious it was fictional. FWIW...(even though I think your question was rhetorical) Cosmo

To: chowder who wrote (8630)	9/25/2001 6:10:12 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Dabum, my reply on why I've dipped a toe into the rubble of the stock market. Three reasons really: I buy for different reasons than most people who post their thought processes on these boards. I try to look for valuations and stories. The valuations in the patch are getting pretty attractive, some along the lines of where they were in '98. Those companies that show nice numbers, particularly PSRs of less than one, are the ones that tend to grab my attention. I sometimes rationalize by what Peter Lynch said - something like "if I liked it at $10, I love it at $8". The second reason is that the market is wildly unpredictable right now. We could get any number of flake rallies in the next few months of downward movement as people finally see how bad the economic situation is, and how badly they've been deceived by Wall Street, the media, and our government. If we get a nice pop I'll take a quick buck any day. If we grind on lower, I'll buy more. There's also the odd posibility that we have an attack on our very vulnerable, and JIT oriented energy infrastructure. Anybody who planned and executed the attack we saw could bring our refining & pipeline infrastructure down just as easily - scary thought huh? The third is that I'm talking about pretty small stuff. My portfolio is close to an all time high, so I'm feeling a little frisky. The energy buys to date are about 15% of portfolio max, and I've still got lots of cash left - so what, me worry? A little taste makes me watch them closer, and my general strategy is to buy much more if the price drops - as long as the story is intact. So, those are my reasons. Yes I have often taken a 25% loss in the past by buying early, but I've always come out ahead in the long run by averaging down - the steeper the drop the more aggresively. If we get anywhere near the PSRs of 4 & 5 that we saw at the peak of this cycle, some of these shares are certain two baggers, and maybe three. Sharp