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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (8659)	9/26/2001 12:37:29 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Hi JT; I plugged in the TA to Nav = shares bought sold up to the 25th and found the Low TA on the 21st did not create a bearish level in Nova or Otc that was as extreme as the TA alone would indicate. Some capitulation but the Rydex traders didn't dump as many shares as the TA might have people think; the TA fall was more because of the drop in NAV than the exit of the Funds. Still it does say the 21st should be a short term bottom, longer term I can't say; at least not yet. ----------------- Beyond Rydex most of the selling has been "institutions" and I'm not like many others who think "institutions" are always smart money. Also I discovered a new trading system a lot of institutions are using to make very large block trades out of sight of the regular markets. But only registered institutions can see and trade on it, this seems to add to the difficulty of making sense out of the traditional short term TA based on volume and price. ---------------- Today's early morning volume of key stocks was to the down side & in spite of an up open it said we would likely end down today. However that won't surprise me after the very strong up day Monday. ---------------- Was Monday a flag ? It's to soon to say but it did have the number one criteria. "Volume" No 2 will be Flags drop to half mast in the next 2 to 4 days.; No 3 is the second surge after it goes to half mast That's the one I really want to see, and for it to give a signal that the Flag is for real; the second surge has to be an up day of over 2% and that must also happen on very good volume. ( volume both over the 50day Avg volume and also more volume than the day before it ). ----------------- If the second surge happens on weak volume it's just shorts taking profits; the high volume is needed to indicate a fight between the bears/bulls with the bulls winning. ----------------- Beyond all of this TA the best indicator I see going forward is the drop in Oil prices , it will take that to turn the bear off. I would love to see Crude drop below $20 for a while. -------------------- With today's pull back I hope the VIX will get back above 40. Best Regards Jim

To: J.T. who wrote (8659)	9/26/2001 1:40:00 PM
From: shasta23	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

you said:End of quarter window dressing in play dictates the counter-trend melt-up will continue higher into the end of the week. right now not looking so sharp and retesting low seems possibility(i guess i'm part of the confounded masses). But had a question in regards of window dressing: after the massive sell off wouldn't you sell as a fund your shares to have them not appear at the end of the quarter on the books showing that you held them through the downturn. Wouldn't that put additional selling pressure on the funds(and markets)? Sorry for the simple question! Stefan

To: J.T. who wrote (8659)	9/26/2001 5:01:27 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

JT; If you don't see me on for a few days it's because I got a call out on a boat job in Houston ( 50/50) chance I leave in the Morning. VIX didn't make 40 but it was close, looks like the flag came to half mast. Now we need a 2% or better run up on better volume than we had today. I don't know with the Jewish Holiday if we will get it but if we do that's even better. -------------- I broke my rule and jumped on a stock today, CSCO at 12.10 however I was defensive enough to sell some covered calls right after buying her. (april 15s ) so another 15% downside won't hurt me. ---------------- If the job don't come through I'll be posting, if not good luck to you while I'm gone. Best Regards Jim

To: J.T. who wrote (8659)	9/27/2001 8:45:35 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, September 26th, 2001: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 190.6 MillionBULLISH SPX Short- URSA 273.6 MillionBULLISH Inversion NDX Long - OTC 692.0 MillionBULLISH Near 3 Year Low NDX Short- Arktos 86.9 MillionBULLISH XAU Precious Metals 76.1 Million Banking 23.0 MillionBULLISH Biotech 236.0 MillionBULLISH Money Market 1.603 BILLIONBULLISH Double Oversold *************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 53.2 MillionBULLISH Inversion SPX Short- TEMPEST 123.6 MillionBULLISH All Time High NDX Long - VELOCITY 113.4 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 118.1 MillionBULLISH All Time High ********************************************* New all time highs in double your pleasure short funds. Money Market Levels back above double oversold levels. *XAU Precious Metals TA plummet on a 4.3% jump in XAU as traders book profits into strength. The minute we unleash firepower the market melts-up. Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN Best Regards, J.T.