To: KLP who wrote (179 ) 9/27/2001 12:28:36 PM From: howsmydrivingal Respond to of 787 by: ridelongride 09/27/01 11:56 am Msg: 303172 of 303176 Time to Play Defense? By Roben Farzad September 25, 2001 ARE DEFENSE STOCKS the right weapons for your portfolio? In the wake of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, the answer would seem to be obvious. As soon as the market reopened on Sept. 17, defense mainstays like Northrop Grumman (NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Dynamics (GD) posted double-digit percentage gains while the Standard & Poor's 500 index tumbled 7%. But a look at history shows that while geopolitical turmoil can make defense stocks look like sure bets, they've usually turned out to be anything but. The 1990s, for example, began with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, which was followed by Operation Desert Storm, the largest American military campaign in years. But with the Cold War simultaneously ending, the expected boom times for defense contractors never materialized. Save for the occasional, short-lived air strike in Iraq or the Balkans, the decade instead became notable for the emergence of the so-called peace dividend — in which reduced military spending freed up budget dollars for other goals. The defense sector thus ended up drastically underperforming the broader market, which staged its biggest bull run ever... And while there may well be a conventional military strike against Afghanistan in the coming days or weeks, the nature of the long-term struggle against terrorism is likely to take a quite different form — one that may bring little benefit to traditional defense contractors. "This isn't going to be a Gulf War scenario," predicts defense industry analyst Thomas Meagher of BB&T Capital Markets. "It will be waged in the shadows — in the back streets of Berlin and Bombay. And to win this war, you have to fight with the best intelligence." In other words, the war on terror might ultimately have little to do with traditional "bomber and missile" suppliers like Lockheed and Northrop... The future of defense, according to analysts like Meagher, lies instead in next-generation information-technology-services firms with significant ties to the defense industry; detection and prevention are especially key. Communications supplier L-3 Communications (LLL), for instance, specializes in bomb-detection equipment and secure wireless and satellite systems for destroyers and jets, and could be a big beneficiary. Ditto for little-known Titan (TTN), which provides government wireless technologies, and Caci International (CACI), a favorite of the Defense Department for its battlefield-simulation machinery. Meagher is also a fan of General Dynamics, a specialist in aerospace- and marine-defense technology whose shares continue to trade in all-time-high territory. *********** from another message board