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To: Sam Citron who wrote (53305)	9/27/2001 3:23:17 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I don't think it really matters. The issue is that the market is busy pricing in the first global recession in 30 years. Why the companies will not be making money is secondary. In the current environment, sell first and ask questions later. If you know where the rock bottom valuations relative to operating parameters are, then you can use that as guidance of where the bottom may be. In a normal market, there's constant exchange between value fund managers and growth fund managers. In good times the value managers let go of their expensive stocks and pass them on to the growth guys. In bad times the growth guys dump the stocks until eventually those stocks find a home with the value investors. Currently growth is out of the window. But value, while existent in some stocks, is lacking a catalyst. So the only time that value investors are willing to buy is when they think the prices justify holding the stocks until the catalyst arrives. Find out what those valuations were in the past and you can use them as a watermark of where the buy range should be. ST

To: Sam Citron who wrote (53305)	9/27/2001 4:45:02 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: Do you view the recession of 91-2 as being caused primarily by the Persian Gulf War? How do you think this recession will be different? This recession will most definitely be different. Now, I just have to figure out whether that means better or worse. 2001-2002 worse than 1990-1991: 1. global coordinated downturn 2. Japan in worse shape now, and a track record of not dealing with problems 3. this war is likely to go on and on, with no decisive final victory (in 1990, stocks soared as soon as the guns stopped firing, as the magnitude of the victory became apparent). 4. this war is being waged in our homeland. 5. valuations started the downturn at far higher levels, and are still much higher than in 1990 2001-2002 better than 1990-1991: 1. interest rates lower, both ST and LT. Coordinated global rate lowering. In 1990, the Fed Funds rate was at 8%, and 10Y Treasuries were at 8.5%. 2. inflation lower, and going down. In 1990, inflation hit 6%. 3. government begins 2001 downturn with a large surplus, allowing more scope for fiscal stimulus without igniting inflation 4. global consensus in favor of free trade and free markets more solid now than in 1990. 5. transition to Information Economy further along, (with unstoppable momentum?). 6. this war (so far) isn't being fought in the oil fields; oil prices (so far) have gone down. Too many variables to make a useful comparison.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (53305)	9/28/2001 11:36:05 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Performance of Selected TECHNOLOGY stocks in the last bad recession: Company.......................1966-1973 High....1974-1976 Low... %Decline Addressograph-multigraph……….$92.00………..$ 3.00………-96.74 Ampex Corp……………………….50.00………….2.00……….-96.00 Automatic Data Processing………..50.00………...10.50……….-79.00 Bunker-Ramo Corp………………..65.00………….3.00……….-95.38 Burroughs Corp…………………..125.00………...61.00……….-51.20 California Comp Prod Inc…………55.00………….2.00……….-96.36 Computer Services Corp…………..34.00………….1.50……….-95.59 Control Data……………………...173.00…………9.50………..-94.51 Data General Corp…………………49.00…………8.50………..-82.65 Dictaphone…………………………38.00…………6.00………..-84.21 Digital Equipment Corp………… 125.00…………45.00……….-64.00 Electronic Data Systems…………160.00…………10.50……….-93.44 Fairchild Camera & Instrument….145.00…………16.50……….-88.62 GCA Corp…………………………55.00…………..2.00……….-96.36 General Instrument Corp………….72.00…………..4.25………..-94.10 Hewlett-Packard Co……………...100.00………….52.00……….-48.00 Honeywell Inc…………………....170.00………….17.50……….-89.71 International business Machines*…91.25………….37.50……….-58.90 Itek Corp………………………….170.00…………..4.75………..-97.21 Milgo Electronics………………….41.50…………...5.75……….-86.14 Mohawk Data…………………….111.00…………...2.25……….-97.97 Motorola…………………………...70.00………….32.00……….-54.29 National Cash Register…………….81.00………….29.00……….-64.20 National Semiconductor Corp……..36.00…………...6.25……….-82.64 NCR Corp………………………….85.00………….13.75……….-83.82 Oak Industries……………………...49.00…………...5.00……….-89.80 Simmonds Precision Products……..46.00……………2.25………-95.11 Savin Business Machines………….72.00……………1.25……….-98.26 Sony Corp………………………….18.25……………3.50……….-80.82 Sperry Rand Corp………………….65.00…………..18.75……….-71.15 Telex Corp…………………………52.00…………..00.50……….-98.44 Texas Instruments Inc…………….140.00…………..60.00……….-57.14 Victor Comptometer Corp…………92.00…………....3.50………..-96.20 Wang Laboratories Inc…………….63.00……………6.50………...-89.68 Xerox Corp……………………….170.00…………..46.00………...-72.94 JS@shithappens.pov