ATTENTION....HERE IS MY LAST SUNDAY NEWSLETTER FOR THE GANG...I AM STILL CAUTIOUS OF THIS EXPECTED BOUNCE...
GOOD LUCK GOING FORWARD HERE...BE ULTRA CONSERVATIVE...
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED 23 SEPT 2001
"""PERVASIVE BEARISHNESS ABOUNDS"""
Good Evening all my cyber friends....from my family to yours...our best wishes...
After the most horrific event ever to happen in the USA, we all now must try to move forward with our lives, never to forget, always to be alert, to love each other like never before...
We are going to be in very stressful times ahead...Both in our daily lives and trading endeavors..Remember this please...We are going to play caboose here...we are not going to guess, we are not going to gamble, we are going forward as prudent traders, preserving capital, and thinking just like we know how too think, while earning a living in the markets...
Because of this event, all technical supports broke down quickly under the fear of major losses and total uncertainty...While I chose NOT to trade short that week..I will NOW begin to trade how ever i deem the right way to go as we move forward..I am going to give triggers both ways here as per usual, however, i'll say this again..WE ARE DEEPLY OVERSOLD AS NEVER BEFORE SEEN ON MY P&F CHARTS...the rubber band is stretched out almost to the limit...
On the Sunday evening prior to the EVENT i wrote about a "Technical Bounce Coming", obviously that event changed all that during the last week or so...Then on this Sunday Prior to the open, i said to simply STAND ASIDE, AND STAY IN CASH...I only hope that you heeded that advice...I've been worrying about all those people that e-mailed me from the very first newsletter in June, about their holdings...I told them all then, to either SELL those stocks underwater they held all the way down from the top, or at least write Covered Calls deep in the money to collect serious cash for their accounts...I have not heard from one person to this date as too what they did or didn't do...Sadly i feel they did NOTHING....
There is going to be un imaginable rumors, WAR & NEWS EVENTS, downgrades galore while the Fall Street Pundits discount the stocks they all called Strong Buys....they will continue to lower prices and revenues because of this event for 2002 & 2003...I can tell you this much...while i see we are pushed out here about 6 months longer than expected for the reversal up... WE ARE GETTING TO LEVELS NOT SEEN BEFORE ON MY BIG PICTURE CHARTS...THE NYSEBP & THE OCTBP...All sectors have been moved to below 30% on the playing field here..EXCEPT....BANKS AND BUILDING....
THIS IS AN "ALERT"..IF YOUR IN BONDS OR BOND FUNDS..I WOULD NOW EXIT THOSE FUNDS...CLOSE YOUR BOND HOLDINGS TOO...I ALERTED YOU TO THIS A WEEK OR SO AGO....The DJBB has given a HIGH POLE SELL Signal..negative...at the same time the TYX index..for bond yields has given a BUY Signal...negative as interest rates are rising...both are moving in opposite directions...BUT BOTH ARE NEGATIVE FOR BONDS....So Banks and interest rate sensitive stocks should fall, along with Real Estate and Building stocks too...
IF YOU HAVE NOT REFINANCED YET..DO IT THIS WEEK..THIS MONTH..DO NOT WAIT...IF YOU CAN BORROW MONEY VIA HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT LOANS..DO IT IF YOU CAN NEGOTIATE A FIXED RATE..AND PAY OFF ALL YOUR CREDIT CARD, AUTO LOANS ETC..THIS CURRENT RATE, IS TOO CHEAP TO PASS UP..RIGHT HERE AND RIGHT NOW...RATES ARE GOING "UP"..NOT DOWN...GOT IT FOLKS?????
In the midst of what i see as bearishness at it's best, i am going to suggest a way to get back in the markets slowly on a long term basis that will work for us all....Over the next 12 months, we can and should DOLLAR COST AVERAGE INTO OUR OWN PORTFOLIO MADE UP OF STOCKS WE KNOW AND LOVE...HERE'S AN EXAMPLE...WHAT EVER YOUR CURRENT CASH AMOUNTS ARE IN YOUR IRA'S...OR YOUR OWN LONG TERM PORTS...DIViDE THAT TOTAL CASH AMOUNT BY 12 MONTHS...USING THE 1ST OF NOV 2001 THRU THE 1ST OF NOV 2002, TAKE THAT AMOUNT AND BUY EQUAL AMOUNTS OF SHARES OF STOCK IN YOUR PORT THRUOUT THE NEXT 12 MONTHS...EVERY MONTH...
WE MAY NOT GET IN AT "THE" BOTTOM, BUT WE WILL BE INVESTING NEAR IT FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, AND AS THOSE STOCKS BEGIN TO REBOUND WE'LL BE PAYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRICES LATER NEXT YEAR BUT SO WHAT..IT SIMPLY WOULD MEAN WE ARE ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY AND YOUR INVOLVED WITH THAT RECOVERY ALL THE WAY UP...
WHILE THINGS LOOK TERRIBLY BLEAK AT THIS TIME, AND MAY GET A LOT WORSE BEFORE WE ACTUALLY BOTTOM...THEY WILL GET BETTER..YOU MUST TRUST THE MARKETS..IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN..WE DO NOT WANT TO MISS THIS NEXT BEST MOVE UP..IT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF AMAZING...THE 2 SINGLE FACTORS OUT THERE THAT MAKES THIS A CERTAINTY..IS CURRENT SHORT INTEREST, AND HUGH AMOUNTS OF CASH LOOKING FOR A HOME...WHEN THIS RALLY ACTUALLY BEGINS IN EARNEST..IT WILL BE AWE INSPIRING...I'LL KNOW THE REAL MACOY WHEN IT HAPPENS, AS THE NYSEBP & OTCBP WILL GIVE ME A SIGNAL AS THEY REVERSE BACK UP IN VERY HEAVILY OVERSOLD LEVELS...IMPORTANT LEVELS I WOULD SAY..THESE INDICATORS DO NOT MOVE VERY FAST..BUT WHEN THEIR ON "OFFENSE" WE GET VERY AGGRESSIVE IN OUR LONG SIDE TRADING...
NOW WHAT SHOULD WE BE THINKING AS THE PROPER STOCKS TO BUY FOR THIS INVESTMENT SENARIO...WITHOUT A DOUBT EVERYONE..THE BIG CAP TECHS FOR SURE....THE INTC'S--AMAT'S--CSCO'S--DELL'S IBM'S ETC ETC ETC..YOU KNOW THE STOCKS....THE FUND MANAGERS WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST AND THE BEST...THESE STOCKS ARE VERY CHEAP HERE..THEY MAY GET CHEAPER SHORT TERM..BUT HECK...THEY'RE CERTAINLY NOT GOING OUT OF BIZ FOLKS...THESE ARE SAFE STOCKS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS..YOU CAN USE DOLLAR COST AVERAGING..OR YOU CAN USE LEAP CALLS...EITHER 2003 OR 2004..YOU MUST HAVE PATIENCE...YOU MUST HAVE LONGER TIME FRAMES TO THINK ABOUT HERE...WE ARE NOT TRADING...WE ARE INVESTING...YOU SIT IN THESE STOCKS..AND CAREFULLY TRAIL UP STOPS TO PROTECT YOUR INVESTED DOLLARS...
OTHERS IN THE WORLD OF INVESTING THEY NEVER TOOK THE TIME TO PROTECT INVESTED CAPITAL...WE WILL..WE MUST...JUST THINK IF EVERYONE HAD LOOSE TRIALING STOPS ON THEIR LONG TERM PORTFOLIOS...THEY WOULD BE AS HAPPY AS ALL GET OUT NOW...NO ONE IN THE BROKERAGE INDUSTRY EVEN GAVE IT A SINGLE THOUGHT...NEVER SAID "SELL"...PROTECT YOUR MONEY AT ALL COSTS..A LOST TRADE IS MEANINGLESS..IT MEANS YOU LOST NOTHING..LOST MONEY IS DEATH AND DESTRUCTION TO YOUR LIVES...SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE LOST HUGH AMOUNTS OF MONEY IN THEIR 401'KS AND IRA'S AND LONG TERM PORTS, BECAUSE THEY "TRUSTED" WALL STREET..NO MORE I HOPE...LET'S NOT FALL BACK INTO COMPLACENTCY AGAIN..EVER AGAIN..DO YOUR OWN DD...YOUR ON FA..YOUR OWN TA...USE YOUR HEADS...AND THINK, FOCUS..AND PROTECT YOUR FAMILIES AT ALL COSTS..IT'S YOUR MONEY OR YOUR LIFE...
OK..I THINK I'VE PONTIFICATED LONG ENOUGH<G>...LET'S LOOK AT THESE OVERSOLD INDEXS AND BOTTOM FISH PLAYS<VBG>...I THINK EVERYTHING I'VE LOOKED AT IS ON THE BOTTOM HERE...I'M GETTING ITCHY FINGERS TOO...IF WE RALLY HERE SHORT TERM..I WOULD ASSUME/GUESS WE WILL TEST THESE LOWS AGAIN FOR SURE...MAYBE BY OCT/NOV...BUT NO MATTER, FOR US THAT LIKE TO TRADE...WE CAN AND SHOULD GO BOTH WAYS HERE...ALBEIT THE RISK REWARD AT THESE LEVELS ERR'S HEAVILY ON THE LONG SIDE...SWING SHORTS ARE NOT THE ORDER OF THE DAY ANYMORE...SCALP SHORTS ARE FINE..AND I'LL BE THER WITH YA FOR SURE...
NOW ONE WORD ABOUT WHAT I SEE FOR THE MARKET IN THE NEXT 2-3 MONTHS....USING STRICKLY P&F HERE...WE HAVE NO CHANCE OF A BALISTIC RALLY YET...BECAUSE OF THIS CURRENT CHART PATTERN...WE WILL HAVE TO BACK AND FILL FOR SAY 2-3 MONTHS, MAKING HIGHER LOWS, AND HIGHER TOPS...ANY NEAR TERM REVERSAL UP IS ONLY A TRADING LONG...IT WILL COME BACK DOWN AGAIN, THEN RUN BACK UP, AND BACK DOWN ETC..FORMING A SIDEWAYS TO UPWARD LOOK TO THE CHARTS...THEN WE'LL BEAK DOUBLE TOPS AND TRIPLE TOPS TAKING OUT RESISTANCE AREAS AS WE BEGIN TO RECOVER..BOTH ON THE INDEXS..INDICATORS, AND STOCK CHARTS..IT WILL BE EXCITING FOR US ALL....WE'LL BE AHEAD OF THE COUNTRY, AHEAD OF THE WALL STREET WIZARDS...BUT THATS OK RIGHT???<G>...
WHAT CAN I SAY ABOUT THESE CHARTS...THE DJIA IN A STRAIGHT DOWN COLUMN OF O'S WITH "NO" REVERSAL UP..NOT EVEN 3 BOXES YET...GOT TO GET THAT FIRST FOLKS...8250 FIRST, THE 20 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART IS AT 9400/9500????...OVER 1000 POINTS AWAY...SO YOU SEE WHAT I MEAN ABOUT BACKING AND FILLING FIRST...BTW FWIW..WANT A QUICK 1000 POINT MOVE ON THE DOW???..KILL BIN LADEN...I AM NOT JOKING EITHER...WATCH FOR THE EVENT IF IT HAPPENS..BE READY FOR IT...HAVE SOMEONE YOU KNOW, YOU LOVE YOU TRUST GET YOU THAT WORD...I LIKE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILTY OF A 1/3 RETRACE HERE TO 8650/8700 AREA....THATS THE R AREA ON THE MONTHLY CHART...
NAZ/COMPX---1550 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP..1700 IS THE 20 EMA OVERHEAD ON THE DAILY...
SOX---440 THE 3 BOX UP...500 IS THE 20 EMA OVERHEAD...WE ARE AT THE 200 EMA ON THE MONTHLY...1998 LOWS???? 180/190 AREA??? GOSH....WHEW!!! LET'S NOT SEE THAT HUH???..GEE WHIZ...
SPX---27 CONSECUTIVE BOXES DOWN WITHOUT A 3 BOX REVERSAL UP??? NEVER SAW THAT BEFORE...980 FIRST 3 BOXER UP...1040 33% RETRACE OF THE CURRENT FALL....1090 THE 20 EMA...
QQQ'S---31 THE FIRST 3 BOX UP...34 THE 20 EMA OVERHEAD...
SMH----BROKE DOWN ON A QUINTUPLE BOTTOM BREAK AT 41, IT NEVER REVERSED BACK UP...SITS ON 28...STRAIGHT DOWN....ALL THE WAY...
31 IS THE REVERSAL BACK UP.....35 IS FIRST R..THEN THE 20 EMA IS AT 38+++ THERE'S A NARROW RANGE BULLISH BAR ON BOTH THE QQQ'S AND SMH'S CHARTS...ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...COULD BE A NICE WAY TO PLAY THE LONG SIDE...
OK LET'S TRAD EM' FOLKS...
TQNT---WHAT A STOCK...LOUSY LOOKING DOJI ON THE DAILY HERE THOUGH...BELOW THE 20 & 40 EMA'S...HIT THE BRL LINE AND REVERSED DOWN LAST WEEK...4 BOXES...19 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...21 IS THE SWING LONG STAY IN TRADE...17 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER..WITH ANY BREAK OF 16 A STAY IN SHORT...IT'S RIGHT IN DA MIDDLE...
AMAT---OVERSOLD...YEAH RIGHT..SO IS THE WHOLE FREAKIN WORLD<G>...NARROW RANGE BAR ON THE DAILY...30 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..31 THE 3 BOX UP...28 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...ANY BREAK OF 26 3/4 STAY SHORT...
KLAC---BULLISH BELT HOLD PATTERN DAILY CANDLE CHART...35 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...37 THE DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...BOTTOM FISH CITY..I LIKE THIS STOCK IF IT CAN DO WHAT I JUST SAID<VBG>...32 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER, TEST 31 FOR SURE...
NVLS---IDENTICAL CHART LIKE KLAC...BOTH STOCKS COMPLETED A BEARISH CATAPULT PATTERN, AND IS VERY LOW ON THE CHART...BULLISH BAR ON THE DAILY NOW...29 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...31 A NICE DT BUY SIGNAL...25 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER...TEST 26...
MCHP---HEY IT'S A TRIPLE???..SAME CHART AS THE 2 ABOVE...VERY INTERESTING...ON THE DAILY CANDLE NICE BULLISH BAR...27 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...MIGHT RUN BACK TO 31ISH QUICKLY...24 3/4 THE SS...
ELNT---YEAH YEAH YEAH..SAME CHART...AMAZING....25 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...28 THE BUY SIGNAL...23 1/4 THE SS...A BREAK OF 22 IS BAD...
BRCD---FORMING A TRIANGLE HERE----18 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...20 IS THE DT BUY SIGNAL B/O...16 3/4 THE SS...
QCOM---RIGHT ON SOME SUPPORT HERE AT 43 AREA...THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...I'D WAIT FOR 46 1/4 HERE TO GO LONG...47 KEEPS YOU IN THIS TRADE...43 1/2 THE SS...42 IS THE SWING SHORT TRIGGER..
EBAY---STRAIGHT DOWN FROM 52 TO 42...READY TO REVERSE???...WAIT FOR 45 1/4 HERE TO GO LONG...49/50 IS A LOW POLE WARNING..THATS GOOD<G>...42 1/2 THE SS...
NVDA---LOOKS LIKE AN ALMOST PERFECT ROUND TRIP ON THE P&F CHART DAILY...28 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...30 IS THE 3 BOX BACK UP...25 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER..
VRSN---AT THE BRINK HERE...DOUBLE BOTTOM IS 38...39 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...41 KEEPS YOU IN THE STOCK LONG..43 IS THE B/O BUY SIGNAL...37 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER..TEST 33 A POSSIBILITY...
RFMD---BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM LAST WEEK..BUT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING UP OK UNDER THE CARNAGE...20 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER, 22 3 BOX UP...26 HEAVY R THERE....18 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...18 IS REAL BAD..HOLD IT SHORT IF THAT HAPPENS..
BTK---INDEX NEAR THE BOTTOM AREA ON THE CHART...I HAD A DOWNSIDE 2ND TARGET OF 390...450 A 3 BOX UP, AND A GOOD SOLID BUY SIGNAL ON BOTH CANDLE AND P&F CHARTS...
IMCL--- A FABULOUS CHART PATTERN ON P&F...BROKE OUT RALLIED HARD, AND THEN PULLED BACK HOLDING ALL SUPPORT...ABOVE ALL MVA'S ON THE DAILY....54 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...56 THE 3 BOX BACK UP HERE, 60 THE BREAKOUT BUY...52 THE SS TRIGGER..TEST THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE AT 49/50...
HGSI---COMPLETED A BEARISH CAT....30 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...31 THE 3 BOX BACK UP...34 THE BUY SIGNAL..THIS IS WHAT BOTTOM FISH TYPE CHARTS LOOK LIKE..IF THEY BEGIN TO DEVELOPE A NEW CHART PATTERN...28 1/4 THE SS...
PDLI----SAME AS HGSI..BEARISH CAT COMPLETED...42 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...44 3 BOX UP...47 BUY BREAKOUT...40 1/4 THE SS...TRIGGER..
MYGN---ANOTHER BEARISH CAT...GOOD LOOKING VOLUME STICKS CONTRACTING THE LAST 2 DAYS...27 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG....25 THE SS TRIGGER..
IDPH--BROKE DOWN ON FRIDAY..A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK AT 46..NOW HEADS UP HERE...IF THE STOCK CAN DO A 3 BOX REVERSAL UP HERE.."WITHOUT PRINTING"...45 FIRST, THAT WOULD BE A TRIPLE BOTTOM FAILURE PATTERN..IT'S VERY BULLISH..WATCH FOR IT...47 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...49 THE "3 BOXER" UP...45 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...YOU KNOW THE REST...
IBM--STOCK WAS A GREAT SHORT AT 110...THEN AGAIN AT 99...COMPLETED A BEAR CAT PATTERN...ON HEAVY SELLING VOLUME...HECK 89 IS THE APRIL LOWS...91 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...93 THE 3 BOXER UP...89 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...87 IS VERY BAD...
GE---BEAUTIFUL BULLISH BAR ON FRIDAY...32 3/4 IS A GREAT BUY TRIGGER LONG...37 THE 20 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART..YOUR STOP WOULD BE 28 3/4 IF YOU SWING TRADE THIS...30 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...ANY BREAK OF 28 1/2-3/4 IS A NO NO...
AOL--- BROKE ALL S AT 33....MIGHT HAVE A HAMMER HERE ON THE DAILY...30 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...COULD RUN UP TO 33/34...28 3/4 THE SS...
BRCM---BELIEVE IT OR NOT..THIS STOCK ACTUALLY REVERSED "UP" ON FRIDAY ON THE P&F CHART????...LET'S SEE IF IT CAN RUN UP HERE...24 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...26 MAKES IT BETTER FOR A LONGER HOLD...22 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...21 IS VERY VERY BAD...NOT GOOD EITHER<G>...
CMVT..TRYING TO BASE BUILD HERE...26 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...IT HAS R AT 30 THE TRIPLE TOP...24 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER...TEST 20 AGAIN...
OK LET'S GET THIS MARKET WORKING FOR US...WHILE WE KEEP OUR PATRIOTIC THOUGHTS WITH OUR TROOPS OVER THERE..WE ALSO BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THIS MARKET..I FEEL VERY CONFIDENT WE'LL ALL DO FINE...KEEP YOUR CHIN'S UP...THIS HAS BEEN A GREAT SHOCK TO US ALL...
AGAIN..NOT TO ADD TO THE HYSTERIA...I AM GETTING INFO ON GAS MASKS AND OTHER PROTECTIVE PRODUCTS FOR MY WHOLE FAMILY..I WANT TO THANK THOSE THAT SENT ME THIS INFO..I HAVE CONTACTS IN ISRAEL, AND HAVE E-MIALED THEM FOR INFO THERE..WE'LL SEE...I WILL PASS THIS ON WHEN I GET IT..YOUR CHOICE TO USE IT OR TOSS IT...
WARMEST REGARDS TO ALL
JERRY |
