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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (4747)	9/30/2001 7:14:35 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

I just hope we're not at the point where been left carrying these nations for so long that we get dragged down hard by their inefficiencies. To a degree we already have... Where did companies like CSCO, LU, SUNW, EMC, etc etc etc saw the expansion they were forecasting? I understood that such projections of growth were primarily off shore, third world etc. Did they negligently miscalculated their projections, or did these countries simply were not capable of fulfilling what these companies saw? Do these countries desire such level of growth ? I do have to say that having the Fed, ECB, and BOJ all taking concerted action after the WTC attack is a VERY positive sign... Some folks have finally realized that they may have to be even more aggressive to prevent having the world economy falling off a cliff should consumers refuse to consume. Well... we will see, I am not too sure they will abort the economic fall that immediate earnings projections seem to be indicating. Even a semi-moron would be able to tell that they were trying to "sell us" a line of bull... He he he... bullt and political speech are the same thing, except that political speech is a socially accepted format of it. The amazing thing is that the great majority still believe in it. I am amazed at how supposedly intelligent people begin to propose laws, (such as a ban of short selling as an example), will "benefit the stock market and thus, (I assume, they are thinking, it will benefit the future and the economy). The stock market reflects* the health of the economy, based on forecasted earnings, (at least that is what common sense would seem to indicate to me. Following the line of thought of "buying is a patriotic duty" (in order to stall a market decline), is the same line of thought that told us that p/e's of 400 or higher justified by future potential [and questionable] earnings. Both point to investing based on ignoring such things as historic fundamentals of companies and/or technical analysis of price behavior. We have seen the effects of such voodoo mentality... are we going to continue? Ah, not only continue... we are going to improve it... by out-lawing short selling... hehehehe Imagine when the time comes for the last "investor" based on the theory of the greater fool buys these stocks... and no more buyers will be... what crash will we have. particularly when there won't be any short-covering. Contrary to most other folks out there, I don't think this "war on terrorism" is going to rise to the level of a major ground war... However, it's essential strategy that it appear that we're entirely willing to take it that far, and farther. The hard reality is nobody knows. The level of uncertainty thrown at us is unprecedented... hence we have seen the market act accordingly. Markets hate uncertainty and thus we have witnessed increased volatility and will continue to see it under the current bear market. We have STILL not understood the effects of ill investing strategies... Example? Look at the "security industries" stocks... many have gone up in price as if it was the Internet mania in full force... Companies like... VISG VSNX IDX and others: thestreet.com Do they justify the rapid increase in their prices regardless (in some cases of their lack of earnings) ? We shall see. But we know what recent history has shown us... investors seem to have very short-term memory. I am talking about the "legal economy" as an aside... These are the effects of the "not so legal trade" of the coming "War on Terrorism"... (Really an extension of the already declared "war on Drugs") ananova.com but it will be a war of law enforcement and covert action, which won't impact the global economy. When people finally begin to realize this, and the fact that the world has, in fact, become less risky, we could see substantial economic increases. Indeed it will be such type of war... However, Has the world, in fact become less risky? I personally doubt it. What has increased is the degree of uncertainty... to me that means a higher cost to run the former known "risk". This in the long run means lower market values. Until we remove the uncertainty the lower trend will continue for a long time.