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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RobertHChaney who wrote (47263)	9/29/2001 1:43:53 PM
From: JAPG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

We are in a bear market messages.yahoo.com JAPG

To: RobertHChaney who wrote (47263)	9/29/2001 2:54:42 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 54805

Hi Robert - yes, I think you have hit a nail on the head yet again. You are good with a hammer it seems to me :) On identifying and hearing contrarians... I have observed two types of conflict. All the time on any thread we get an assortment of the loonies in the crowd. Who fly in from nowhereland screaming "Stock XYZis going to the moon", or "Better get out of PDQ before it tanks tomorrow"... or similarly pure and unadulterated hype. They may even be quite persistent. Mostly conclusions, assertions, no logic. And any logic that appears is shifty, like smoke. Different basis, same conclusion. Then there's another type. The Logic Quixote who replies to a comment and picks up a piece of it and says "I disagree". Or if it is their first post, perhaps agreeing with a poster who is hinting at controversy, and amplifying the controversy to a fine point. And survives the initial piling on that their heresy attracts. Maintaining a logical and reasoned position (net of any tax that being a heretic entails -g-). A key marker here is that while there is logic, it rests on an invisible cornerstone about which there is disagreement. And does not shift. A kind of intellectual honesty based on a premise that isn't shared. If there is a gem of wisdom to be found in contrary views, I suspect it will be these Logic Quixotes who will harbor it, and it will be found at the base of that cornerstone. Something they saw before it became obvious. Often much earlier than is ideal. So there is time. One has to persistently ignore the indicator. At least this seems to be my recollection of how things went at the turning of the top. But you are very right, I think, that one must (a) be self confident, and (b) check the ego at the door. It is so hard to get that balance right. The part about investing that took me the longest time to get over was that it takes both views to make the market. One by very definition is wrong (as only the future will prove) and yet both sides must believe themselves to be right. John.

To: RobertHChaney who wrote (47263)	9/29/2001 3:46:28 PM
From: OZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

History has shown that the market is correct much of the time, which will defeat an always contrarian approach So when was the market wrong??? In my trading experience, my major thing is that the market is never wrong. The previous concept will kill both a trader and investor. Fair value is whatever you can get for something at the time. I believe that the competitive advantages that attracted people here to stocks in the bull market are still in place with many of those companies and that NOW is the time to be re looking at those companies that still have those same advantages as before. It is even easier now because the market did you all a favor and killed certain GG candidates (ATHM)and the true big boys can more easily be spotted and sorted. So the F/A analysis done with your due diligence need not change as much as your very human need to buy with the crowd as before. Why do we call buying in a bear market "timing" the market and buying in a bull market Gorilla Gaming or "intelligent" investing. Though there is nothing wrong with buying in a bull market if you do not mind sitting through a major correction such as this and are not complaining. Wether you agree with what I say or not, something in the conventional approach around here has to change to something that separates you from the crowd on your entry to avoid getting caught in what has happened. I do think that your list of reasons is a great insight on you part though. Luckily they are things that I followed by reading, training and learning about them before trading full time as well as some hardknocks. OZ