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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Second_Titan who wrote (8865)	9/30/2001 4:06:05 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 23153

An up to date read on SP500 PE, but evidently an outdated read on earnings growth. stockselector.com

To: Second_Titan who wrote (8865)	9/30/2001 4:06:08 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Bear Markets Since World War II Start Finish Length(months) Drop in S&P 500 5/29/46 6/13/49 36.4 -29.6% 8/2/56 10/22/57 14.6 -21.6% 12/12/61 6/27/62 6.5 -27.6% 2/9/66 10/7/66 7.9 -22.2% 11/29/68 5/26/70 17.8 -36.1% 1/11/73 10/3/74 20.7 -48.2% 11/28/80 8/12/82 20.4 -27.1% 8/25/87 12/4/87 3.3 -33.5% 7/16/90 10/11/90 2.9 -19.9% 7/17/98 8/31/98 1.5 -19.3% 3/24/00 ??? 18+ -27%? Average of first 10: 13.2 -28.5%

To: Second_Titan who wrote (8865)	10/1/2001 3:34:12 AM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Que, Link to Yardeni's web site. Click daily Fed's stock valuation model for an Acrobat download. Yardeni uses an SP500 valuation metric which normalizes value with respect to current interest rates on 10-tr treasury bonds . I do not fully follow the logic behind this model, nor am I familiar with its track record. yardeni.com I've seen this model crop up here and there in the past 5 years. Recently heard some talking head on CNBS blabbing about it. Thought I'd look it up. Bottom line, S&P500 currently undervalued by about 15%. I'm not saying that Carl Swenlin cannot get his SP500 level of 490 (or lower). I do not quite follow his chart, though. Are the target PE lines based on "pro forma", or GAAP earnings?? And is Yardeni using "pro forma" earnings with his model?? Caution is required here. Warp