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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (47347)	10/1/2001 9:03:54 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

Paul, What is it that you think market timing means? Attempting to time a top and bottom of a class of investments (bonds, stocks, tech stocks, small-cap stocks, large-cap stocks, commercial real estate, residential real estate, or whatever). Do you consider altering you investment approach to face the reality of a bear market to be market timing? Yes, I consider that market timing. However, I don't believe in the phrase, "the reality of a bear market" unless we're referring to the past. I don't believe we should ever think of the future in terms of "reality." I believe it's healthier to think in terms of perceptions, predictions, expectations and the like. Do you not think that depression in technology is screwing up the Gorilla Game today? I believe the forces at work in the value chains of technology products are producing dramatically different results than those of the last five years of the 90s. If you're asking if I believe those forces are altering the long-term forces upon which Gorilla Gaming is based, no, I don't believe that's happening. Moore commented that we should digest the macroeconomics until the Gorilla Games rebegin. I infer from that comment that Gorilla Games might have come to a stop. That goes against the grain of some of the most fundamental stuff in his manual. I don't believe he really meant to imply that. If he were given the opportunity to review his implication that the Games have come to a stop, I'm sure (I hope!) he would use a different choice of words. To get to what I think might be the essence of the discussion, I still haven't changed my thinking that this is not a good time to be adding funds to high-tech stocks. That's not because I am certain they are going to go lower or because I suggest that we try to time the bottom. It's because the only thing I'm certain of is that there is tremendous uncertainty about the near- to medium-term future of the market places to which high-tech companies sell their products. Given such uncertainty and remembering that Gorilla Gaming should ideally reduce risk over the long term, it seems particularly risky to add more funds these days. I believe the time to add funds to high-tech stocks is when we have fundamentals confirmed by tornados and bowling alleys. Unless someone has a very strong conviction that tornado or bowling alley tactics are being successfully implemented by a particular company, adding more funds right now seems to me to be basing such an investment on something other than Gorilla Gaming. Your or anyone's thoughts? --Mike Buckley P. S. Was it really a year ago that Moore came out with his first comment about going to cash? Does anyone have that post and its date handy?