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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (105783)	10/2/2001 3:46:22 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Thus around 13-14 mill No question that this would (and should) be seen as a negative.

To: marginmike who wrote (105783)	10/2/2001 6:09:44 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

no idea, just heardthatthey will be flat QOQ. Thus arround 13-14 mill Thinking out loud.... A 14m chipset quarter in 1Q '02 would lead to a total of 58m chipsets for the calendar year. I believe that there were a little over 60m CDMA handsets sold last year. The bounceback of Korea is going to probably give us an extra 6m handsets YoY. So....if every other region of the world were to remain flat, we could end up with around 66m handsets sold worldwide. This is significantly below Q's forecast of 75m (which is probably too high) but would represent a good worst case scenario. I know that there were was a large amount of handsets/chipsets in the channel at the end of last year....but I dont know if 8m units would be too high or too low. Another factor for next quarter is going to be the China roll-out. From the various reports we have read, it seems that infrastructure is already rolling out across China. A nationwide roll-out during the first quarter of next year would require a significant number of handsets to be in the channel. It seems to me that somewhere between 1-2m chipset might be produced next quarter that are heading for China. I would be pretty surprised at less than 16m chipsets produced next quarter. If they do fall below that number, it means that there was a disastrous amount of inventory in the channel at the end of last year....or that China is going to be rolling out more slowly than we thought. Slacker