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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (55086)	10/2/2001 5:07:46 PM
From: Tradelite	Respond to of 57584

Yes, there will be some people displaced in this mess. Towns which depend on manufacturing will get hit the worst--that's why the Silicon Valley of the West is faring worse than the Silicon Valley of the East. Here in the east, the high-tech companies are more engaged in providing before-and-after-the-sale service, not making the product. However, we are facing a situation that has no historical precedent in terms of recession/real estate decline.....interest rates are incredibly low and going lower, and these rates were not seen in previous downturns...this will enable many people to hang on to their homes, even if only by their fingernails. We probably also have a higher proportion of two-income families, with one partner able to keep things going. What we might see next is mortgage lenders getting more lenient than they ever have before in terms of doing "workouts" for people who are falling behind on payments. People can "panic" out of homes just like they "panic" out of stocks, when they probably shouldn't. If someone has the option of bailing and returning to their hometown where they have a support network, that's great. But for many others, the alternative is renting--and believe me, they should do everything they can to hang onto their present home before they choose that. And yes, I know about some areas which haven't recovered from previous recessions. Have been working hard, for a couple years now, on unloading some Texas real estate that was purchased by a family member during the oil heydays of the 1970s. More than 20 years later, we're selling at a loss. But that was a true bubble built on speculation. I just don't buy the bubble theory this time around, at least on a nationwide basis. Too many buyers chasing too few properties is what caused our latest price run-up. We still have lots of people needing homes. Hopefully they will step up to the plate and bail out the ones who need to sell.