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To: Alex who wrote (77897)	10/3/2001 9:19:45 AM
From: Richnorth	Respond to of 116759

You have posted an opinion! Thanks! But what is your personal opinion about what is likely to happen? According to the article, deflation has a minute chance of happening. But IMHO, deflation is likely to come on the heels of recession. A short while ago, AG opined that the economy will turn around soon. But I think he is out to lunch this time around because tweaking the interest rate and monetary policy will not help matters. Rightly or wrongly, I believe October will be a down and down month with lots of folks kicked hard in the ass (except for savvy and unpatriotic shorters), especially in the last few days of the month. (Of course, many will disagree because "patriotic" folks are definitely "buying"....and the Prez has asked folks to do things to make 9/11 look inconsequential). Then the market will pick up in November and anyone with profitable positions will do well to close out! Because a big downturn is likely to occur a day or two before the markets close for the Christmas Holidays! But of course, this is just MHO. Also, I won't be surprised if terrorists will make another attempt to make this Christmas definitely a very blue one for lots of us. Will folks go out in droves to shop for X'mas to help perk up the economy? Will they travel much during the holidays?

To: Alex who wrote (77897)	10/3/2001 12:03:55 PM
From: PAUL ROBERTSON	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

thanx Alex, one of, if not the most important posts ever on this thread, imo. Since nature will not be permitted to take its course, that is, deflation, hyper inflation will likely be the resulting force, i believe it may be the largest pressure cooker situations of all time. The high dollar is essentially choking the US to death. One can put all the technicals aside, oversold this, commercial short that, fact is, we are very likely in the early stages of a run away market of a lifetime. All you have to do is keep your eye firmly on the buck as it will tell you all you need to know. This is where Frank Veneroso's work may have a chance to shine. If there truly are over four years of gold production leased, shorted, sold forward, whatever, this sucker could make all the other squeezes, throughout history, look like child's play. Gov'ts and CBer's could be helpless even with the IMF and US reserves at hand.