SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sully- who wrote (42902)10/4/2001 9:52:00 PM
From: Dealer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
From Donald Sew:

OCT 4 INDEX UPDATE
---------------------------
Short-term technical readings:
DOW - pending CLASS 1 SELL
SPX - pending CLASS 1 SELL, DRAGONFLY DOJI
OEX - pending CLASS 1 SELL, INVERTED HAMMER
NAZ - overbought region, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI, SHOOTING STAR
NDX - overbought region, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI, SHOOTING STAR
VIX - lower midrange/borderline oversold
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = negative 46
No confirmation of the possible NEGATED CLASS 1 SIGNALS. With the DOW/SPX/OEX giving up all of their intraday gains and forming DRAGONFLY DOJI/INVERTED HAMMER, it appears that some sort of a pullback may have started today.

The NAZ/NDX formed SHOOTING STARs, which is a 2-DAY reversal pattern and only moderately reliable. However, if the NAZ/NDX gaps down at tomorrows open, and does not rally intraday, that would form an EVENING STAR which has high reliability for a downward reversal.

The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs improved again slightly. Not bad/Not great, just so-so.

One possible negative for the NAZ/NDX, mentioned by Justa, was the weakness in QCOM. QCOM did set a slight LOWER LOW on both a intraday and closing basis. QCOM is the 3rd largest component of the NDX at 4.82%, so if QCOM continues to decline, that could weaken the NAZ/NDX.
dynamic.nasdaq.com

In my personal mutual fund account, I am now only partially hedged with a downside bias (about 70/30). In our website account, we closed a UOPIX(long-NDX) position and opened a small USPIX(short-NDX) position to create an even hedge. Still holding my QQQ JAN 04 25 LEAPS, but did attempt to sell calls today but didnt get my price - that may become a boo-boo.



To: Sully- who wrote (42902)10/4/2001 9:55:17 PM
From: James Calladine  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
'Perception is reality............. regardless of the facts.'

Nicely said!

And you could also add:

AND YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT THE FACTS ARE, EITHER
BECAUSE "THE FACTS" ARE JUST SOMEBODY'S SNAPSHOT
OF REALITY, AT A GIVEN "PLACE" AND AT A GIVEN "TIME".

And even the "hardest" of so-called "facts" (THE SCIENTIFICALLY VERIFIED) are in the habit of being revised,
over "time". Scientific "facts" of today are not the same
as the scientific facts of 100 years ago, let alone 500 or
1000 years ago.

"you never ever know what a single thing IS" (Adi Da)

Namaste!

Jim



To: Sully- who wrote (42902)10/4/2001 11:09:15 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 65232
 
Here's some info. on one of my favorites...

08:11am EDT 4-Oct-01 Dain Rauscher Wessels (Montague, Robert
(901)744-5671)

QLGC:SB-Aggr; UPGRADING TO STRONG BUY; CHANNEL SURVEY INDICATES STRONG SAN DEMAND

Dain Rauscher Wessels
a division of Dain Rauscher Incorporated

*Channel checks indicate that revenue impact of the September 11, events
on
September/October quarter was moderate.
*Channel checks also suggest accelerating interest in SAN deployment among
previously untapped customers.
*We see the potential for upside results by the March/April quarter
relative
to the most likely guidance scenarios.
*We therefore are upgrading the leading SAN equipment vendors, including
Cerus, to Strong Buy-Aggressive.

QLogic Corporation
Nasdaq:QLGC
Rating: Strong Buy
Risk: Aggressive
Price Target: $ 35

,
____________________________________________________________________________
_
Price: $23.96 | Fiscal Yr Prev EPS P/E
52-Wk Range: $130-$17 | Mar/2001A $1.02 23.5x
Tr. 12 ROE: 20.00% | Mar/2002E $0.82 29.2x
3 Yr EPS Gr: 40.00% | Mar/2003E $0.98 24.4x
Shares Out: 94.86 million | 2002 Q2 $0.19
Book Value: $5.79 |
Market Cap: $2.27 billion |
____________________________________________________________________________
_
Calendar Yr Prev EPS P/E
____________________________________________________________________________
_
__________________________________________________________________________

SYSTEM AREA NETWORKS
Robert Montague
(901) 744-5671
rmontague@dainrauscher.com
Steve Denegri
(901)744-5670
sdenegri@dainrauscher.com

QLGC:SB-Aggr; UPGRADING TO STRONG BUY; CHANNEL SURVEY INDICATES STRONG SAN
DEMAND

Since the close of the third quarter we have surveyed 22 distributors and
integrators, with combined annual SAN hardware, software and service
revenue
of approximately $600 million. Our channel checks indicate that the
revenue
impact of the September 11, terrorist attacks on the September/October
quarter was moderate. They also suggest that a subsequent increase in
demand
for disaster recovery and backup solutions is driving accelerating
interest
in SAN deployment among previously untapped customers. In sum, the view
from
the trenches is remarkably positive, in stark contrast to consensus Street
expectations for the December/January quarter. The following data points
summarize the psychology on the front lines of the SAN sector:

* Over the past three days, we have followed up with 14 of 20 companies
surveyed last quarter. Of these companies, four were below forecast, two
above, and eight in line with their third-quarter revenue forecast.

* Pricing for SAN components remains steady in spite of the precipitous
drop in pricing for primary storage. In addition, inventories of SAN gear
are
at low levels throughout the channel.

* Companies surveyed without exception cited backup as a "HOT" technology
for the next 12-18 months. In addition, numerous companies indicated that
many customers that had delayed SAN deployments in the past were now
moving
ahead with projects.

* The arithmetic mean and revenue-weighted average projection of surveyed
companies calls for 25% and 19.2% sequential fourth-quarter SAN revenue
growth respectively. This compares to mid-single-digit sequential growth
projections in our survey completed a quarter ago. We would note that this
strong sequential forecast is not the result of a few outliers. This is
demonstrated by the fact that of 22 companies surveyed, only one company
projected a sequential decline in revenue while 10 projected sequential
revenue growth in excess of 20%.

These data points indicate that our revenue outlook for the leading SAN
players over the next two quarters may prove too conservative. However, we
continue to believe that companies will take a conservative stance on
guidance until the evidence of a brighter outlook is converted to revenue.
We, therefore, see the potential for upside results by the March/April
quarter relative the most likely guidance scenarios. Given the gap between
Main Street and Wall Street expectations for SAN trends in the next six
months, we feel a more aggressive near-term stance is warranted. We,
therefore, are upgrading the leading SAN equipment vendors to Strong Buy-
Aggressive.

Our due diligence suggests that QLogic finished close to our revenue and
EPS estimates for the September quarter. Looking forward, several
catalysts
are emerging to drive the 2002 opportunity, including:

* New disk drive programs at Fujitsu;
* The Spider switch blade program at EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC; Buy-Aggr;
$11.15);
* Incremental adapter business at Dell due to pending Dell/EMC
relationship;
* An additional switch blade design win at a major storage OEM;
* A 2 Gbps SANBox switch selection at a third storage OEM;
* Emerging Sbus Fibre Channel adapter programs with at least two OEM
customers; and
* Compact PCI design wins on Sun's new midrange and high-end offerings.

Stock Opinion

We are upgrading QLGC shares to Strong Buy-Aggressive. We believe stronger
industry trends along with QLogic's market breadth and growing market
share
provide the company with significant growth catalysts over the next few
quarters. QLogic holds $379 million, or approximately $4 per share, of
cash
and investments on the balance sheet. Net of the cash, QLGC shares trade
at
less than 22x our calendar 2002 earnings--a significant discount to the
growth outlook for its segments. Our six-month price target of $35
reflects a
40 multiple of our CY2002 EPS estimate of $0.91.



To: Sully- who wrote (42902)10/4/2001 11:57:26 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Bonds hits 70th home run, ties McGwire's record

By BEN WALKER
AP Baseball Writer
October 4, 2001

HOUSTON (AP) -- Barry Bonds took all the frustration bottled up inside him and sent No. 70 into the upper deck in right field.

With one big swing Thursday night, Bonds tied Mark McGwire's home run record -- a feat even Big Mac thought might last a lifetime when he did it a mere three years ago.

``It was electrifying,'' Bonds said.

After watching Houston pitchers work around him throughout the three-game series, Bonds finally got a chance to hit, leading off the ninth inning. He did not miss, hitting a 454-foot shot off rookie Wilfredo Rodriguez.

``I was happy I made contact. It's hard to just take pitches all the time,'' he said. ``You really don't have an opportunity to swing.''

Bonds immediately raised both arms in the air and began a slow trot around the bases. The record crowd of 43,734, which had booed when Astros pitchers walked him, rewarded him with a standing ovation.

The Giants won 10-2, completing a sweep that kept them two games behind Arizona in the NL West race with only a weekend series left at home against Los Angeles.

Bonds' teammates poured out to greet him at home plate along with young Nikolai Bonds, whose 37-year-old father hugged him tight at the plate. Bonds then pointed to his wife and daughters behind the third-base dugout as he returned to the bench.

``Everybody was telling me just be patient, be patient. I'm glad it's over. I'm glad my family was here. My wife gets to sleep now,'' Bonds said.

``I got frustrated when it was 8-1 and they intentionally walked me because it was not a really crucial situation. That's when I got really frustrated,'' he said.

As for the man whose record he tied, Bonds said: ``I have a lot of respect for Mark McGwire. For me, it is an honor to share this with him. He's a great home run hitter. He's always established power and strength. He put the record where it is.''

With fans still cheering at Enron Field, Bonds came out for two curtain calls. He took his position in left field to start the bottom of the ninth, was mobbed by teammates who were in the Giants' bullpen, then was replaced and walked off, waving his cap to fans.

Bonds' 70th homer marked the second big achievement of the day in the majors. Earlier, Rickey Henderson of San Diego scored his 2,246th career run and broke Ty Cobb's record.

Bonds hit his 564th career home run, moving him past Reggie Jackson -- a distant relative -- for seventh place on the all-time list.

Among those cheering for Bonds was his godfather, Hall of Famer Willie Mays, who ranks third on the career list with 660 homers. Mays hit his 500th homer in Houston, at the Astrodome in 1965.

Bonds' father, former major leaguer Bobby, was with Mays in the Giants clubhouse and watched the historic homer on TV.

Bonds connected on a 1-1 pitch from Rodriguez, a 22-year-old lefty making only his second major league appearance. Bonds took a huge cut and missed the first pitch, watched a ball up and in, then launched a 93-mph fastball into the stands.

``I feel OK. I'm happy for him. He deserves what he got,'' Rodriguez said through an interpreter. ``That was my best pitch.''

The ball was caught by Charles Murphy, 38, of Houston, using his son's glove. He bought his tickets earlier in the day.

``I'm sure there are plenty of options,'' he said of the prize souvenir.

Last year, Bonds hit a 458-foot shot that ranks as the longest in the two-year history of Enron.

Bonds, a 10-time All-Star who could be headed to his record fourth MVP award, had never hit more than 49 home runs in a season before this year.

But choking up on his 34-inch, maplewood bat, he quickly put himself in position to challenge McGwire's record, set in 1998.

McGwire's mark captured the nation's attention, especially because he dueled Sammy Sosa to beat the longtime standard of 61 set by Roger Maris in 1961.

When McGwire finished with 70 home runs, it looked like it might become baseball's new magic number.

``I think it will stand for a while. I know how grueling it is to do what I've done this year,'' he said. ``Will it be broken someday? It could be. Will I be alive? Possibly.

``But if I'm not playing,'' he said, ``I'll definitely be there.''

Bonds, never the most likable player with fans or opponents, did not stir quite the same interest as Big Mac. Not only was Bonds' chase not the biggest story in the country -- not after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 -- but it even fell behind Michael Jordan's return on the sports pages.

The media contingent watching Bonds the last few days was only half the size of Big Mac's following.

Many people said McGwire's record pursuit was more difficult than Bonds' chase.

``I agree with that to a point,'' Bonds said. ``Because the Maris home run record had so much time in between it. People didn't believe it was going to happen.''

``When something like that happens, the whole world goes, 'Boom.' He probably went through more than I did. Hitting 70 is harder than 61, but what he went through was harder than what I did,'' he said.

Bonds came into cozy Enron on Tuesday night eager to have Houston pitchers challenge him. Instead, they all took turns working around him.

Until he homered, he had singled twice in five at-bats and gotten eight walks in the three-game series. Even so, Astros manager Larry Dierker insisted he had not told his pitchers to work around Bonds.

Bonds had gone 19 plate appearances, including 10 walks and a pair of hit by pitches, without homering since hitting No. 69 on Saturday.

It was nowhere close to his longest homerless drought, having gone 63 plate appearances and 14 games without one before the All-Star break. But it came at a most inopportune time, especially with history so close -- it's a mere 373-foot shot to the right-center field fence at Enron.

Bonds goes home to face the Giants' longtime rival, the Dodgers.

In April, Los Angeles was furious after the Giants stopped the game at Pacific Bell Park following Bonds' 500th home run.

``You know us and the Dodgers,'' Giants manager Dusty Baker said before Thursday night's game. ``You know what that's about.''

Chan Ho Park is scheduled to start Friday night for the Dodgers. Bonds is 10-for-37 (.270) with five home runs against him.

Jeff Kent and Marvin Benard homered as San Francisco swept the set and sent the collapsing Astros to their sixth straight loss and eighth in nine games.

The Astros, who could have clinched a playoff spot with a win, fell out of first place for the first time since Aug. 16. They dropped one game behind St.Louis, which beat Milwaukee 10-3.

Notes

Russ Ortiz (13-7) was the winner, Dave Mlicki (7-3) the loser. ... Houston, which led the Cardinals by 5 1/2 games on Sept. 24, closes the regularseason with three games at St. Louis.



To: Sully- who wrote (42902)10/5/2001 1:53:29 AM
From: elpolvo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
OOFster-

if reality = truth
and perception = reality
then perception = truth

why should this be painful?

-el painless