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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (47530)	10/5/2001 1:34:01 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Once the details come out, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Motorola gave them 150% financing on the bandaids. Cheap enough considering that it took $10B for Docomo to influence AT&T's technical roadmap. uf

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (47530)	10/5/2001 4:25:16 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

I don't believe there are any significant ramifications we can draw about Nextel's decision to stick with iDEN for the time being. First, we don't know how permanent the decision is. Second, we don't know how much of the decision was based on the technology. Third, based on my personal experience of dealing with Nextel's senior management (yep, Nextel also buys carpet) the process I witnessed says a lot more about the political process than the decision itself. To a large extent, the success of CDMA depends on the financial health of the industry that might use it. I think the main thing investors can take away from Nextel's decision is that Nextel isn't the only operator that is short on cash and long on debt. Migrating to CDMA in the near term requires the belief that a company will make money as a direct result of that business decision. Much of the benefit of a migration to CDMA is based on the belief that if you provide the supply the demand will eventually be there. That's a lot to bet on in an unsure economic environment, especially for the companies with unhealthy balance sheets. --Mike Buckley

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (47530)	10/5/2001 5:47:24 PM
From: techreports	Respond to of 54805

the thing is, Nextel's financial condition was widely known even before the 1x demos started--this goes back years, so i hardly think it is the proximate cause for their rejection of QCOM technology. they did the trials and so on, and then opted to stick with iDEN. exactly how i feel. Message 16459224 People want to believe this is all Nextel's fault. Sure, Nextel's balance sheet might look terrible, but what about the other wireless carriers? If they all have terrible balance sheets, then does this excuse make sense? Even if a carrier like Verizon has a bad balance sheet they already use CDMA and have a much larger user base. I think the wireless carriers are beginning to realize that 3g and data are over hyped right now, and demand for 3g just isn't there, so what's the point to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade their networks? Especially since the economy sucks. I do eventually see the wireless world moving towards 3g, but the carriers need time to make money. This constant upgrade cycle just isn't going to work. The carriers need time to recap their investments on 2g. <<...Jon Atkin, an analyst with Dain Rauscher Wessels, says Nextel's decision enhances both its liquidity and its acquisition appeal. Had Nextel moved to CDMA, it would have been much less appealing to other wireless carriers that did not use that network....>> I don't know if i agree with this thinking. Wouldn't sticking with iDEN makes Nextel less appealing to everyone, since no US carrier uses iDEN? Leap is attractive because of its CDMA (code division multiple access) network. CDMA is the technology many believe will be the platform for 3G. Its cash position is solid at $593 million while long-term debt stands at $1.4 billion. A potential suitor could be AT&T Wireless , whose network is based on older analog technology. Who ever wrote this must have no idea what is going on. AT&T hates Qualcomm and CDMA. Why would they buy Leap? Doesn't make sense, unless ATT has changed their opinion on Qualcomm and CDMA Not at all. It only means that Qualcomm's Gorilla power is confined to the existing cdma and future 3G universes. They are not the Gorilla of All Wireless... yet. I thought the gorilla had to be the gorilla of all wireless. Microsoft wouldn't be a gorilla if they didn't have 90% marketshare in desktops. Much of the benefit of a migration to CDMA is based on the belief that if you provide the supply the demand will eventually be there. Back during the bubbles days, it was so common to see companies spend money on something and hope that the demand will eventually be there. That's what probably caused this recession.