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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (47533)	10/5/2001 1:40:33 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Carrier Consolidation Coming Friday October 5, 12:00 pm Eastern Time Forbes.com By Lisa DiCarlo Whether, when and how third-generation wireless (3G) will live up to its promise is a matter of intense debate. What's not debatable is that the need for usable spectrum, the airwaves that deliver voice, video and data services, will drive larger companies to buy small and medium-sized carriers. Spectrum capacity is one of the major concerns of large carriers. Lack of it means poor quality and the inability to add new customers. Currently, there is a cap--45MHz--on the amount of spectrum a single company can own. Analysts believe Verizon is already bumping the ceiling. But the Federal Communications Commission is expected to lift the cap, opening the door for consolidation. "Spectrum is the lifeblood," says Rudy Baca of the Precursor Group. "You can't upgrade your system or can't add customers without it. All the small players are takeout targets." Some of the likely targets are Leap Wireless , Dobson Communications and Northcoast , a company half-owned by Cablevision . Leap is attractive because of its CDMA (code division multiple access) network. CDMA is the technology many believe will be the platform for 3G. Its cash position is solid at $593 million while long-term debt stands at $1.4 billion. A potential suitor could be AT&T Wireless , whose network is based on older analog technology. Northcoast would be a strategic acquisition due to its coverage of major markets like New York and Boston, says Baca, who believes that almost any large carrier could pick it up. "Operators must increase capacity and coverage," says Kshitij Moghe of Frost and Sullivan. Two of the biggest targets are Sprint PCS and Nextel . Both have digital networks in place and, more importantly, spectrum to spare. Whomever would buy Sprint has to be big enough to assume the burden of its $14 billion in long-term debt. AT&T and Cingular are possibilities. There's no timetable on the FCC's expected lift on the spectrum cap. Companies had been negotiating with the U.S. military--which controls half of the country's spectrum--about a transfer. But that option went out the window after the terrorist attacks heightened the need for tighter communications security. In any case, it will be a few years before services that resemble 3G are made affordably available to the masses. Unless we want to continue suffering the same abysmal service as with current cellular networks, the government should step out of the way of this progress and lift the cap sooner rather than later.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (47533)	10/5/2001 1:52:21 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Just a thought, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Motorola gave them 150% financing on the bandaids. Cheap enough considering that it took $10B for Docomo to influence AT&T's technical roadmap. Does not this mean that Qualcomm does not have Gorilla power? Paul

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (47533)	10/6/2001 9:15:45 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Once the details come out, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Motorola gave them 150% financing on the bandaids well, one can speculate till one is blue in the face. the knowable fact is that Nextel, its financial condition already widely known, demo'd 1x and said they'd stick with iDEN. i think it came down to technical merits and the particulars of Nextel's spectrum assets. it may be that 1x could not be adjusted to Nextel's needs for a reasonable cost.