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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (9325)	10/10/2001 9:32:57 PM
From: MetalTrader	Respond to of 23153

still yakin' about da gap dabum? <s>. I think we'll likely close the gap and then fall exhausted onto the floor. To beat the dead horse, bottoms are processes not events. I have a modest bet that we still have another day or two left in this rally before I go back into my cashaholic stupor. This is the third time whacking on this resistance so it's an important one. The NDX made through gap resistance so the broader market should too. After that, another 75 points would be a good place to stop. From there we could have a reasonable retracement and still keep the uptrend intact. So in my perfect nazworld, 1702, back to 1488 where I find a low stochastic and we can declare it an honest to god bottom (even if a little one) and rebuy what I sold at 1702. On another subject, gold took a whack today. I wrote calls last week so I wasn't terribly upset. I don't see anything has fundamentally changed relative to gold - other than the inability of investors to focus on more than one asset class at a time. The trend from last year still looks intact. The oscillators are still too high to buy, but if the trend is intact and oscillators giving oversold readings I'll be adding to core gold positions. If the trend does not hold then all bets are off the table as a double top could be leading us all the way back to where we started. My head says no, but I'll let my eyes tell me for sure. mt

To: chowder who wrote (9325)	10/10/2001 9:44:14 PM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Dabum, if the war premium is helping the patch return to normal valuations so be it. But for instance NE's forward EPS has been hammered to ~$2.00 for 2002. Their historical average FEPS multiple is 22 with an SD of 10. So sooner or later it will spend roughly 68% of its time above or below ~$44 +/- $10. The service stocks have even more upside. I suspect we spend a few months between OSX 80-90, while the Winter drains the gas supply down. Anyone been following the Nuke plants stats? Lots of downtime over the last few weeks. Coal data is not available, but this is the normal time of year for maintenance before Winter peak loads. Ammonia plants are returning and RIG counts are dropping. A new cycle is around the corner.