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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (54052)	10/11/2001 1:43:40 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

sold some AMAT at 35.1 today. This was the lot I'd bought earlier at 35 (my highest-cost lot). I had previously planned on selling in 2.5-point increments, from 35 on up, but I now think I'll space them out in 5-point increments (so, next sell at 40). The reason is that, so many sell orders have triggered today, my margin is now down to a very comfortable level. I don't feel the pressure to deleverage, I can wait and take advantage of a rally which may (or may not) take the SOX over 500. On 9/10, I was 40% cash. By 10/5, I was 40% margin. (too too much) As of now, I am down to 15% margin. I've sold my higher-cost stocks and options in a variety of equities (at slight profits or losses), and am now holding stock, and 800 contracts of 2004 calls in my favorite quality techs, bought at prices right at (or fractionally above) their yearly (multi-year, actually) lows. It was a huge gamble, and I won big. 99% of the time, I am more bearish than 99% of posters on SI. The other 1% of the time, I am more Exuberantly Bullish than 99% of my fellow investors. September 17 through October 5, 2001, was was one of my bullish phases. The last one before that was in October 1998. Probably have to wait another 3 years before I can get that bullish again. Now, I'll sit back and wait. The Nas would have to go to <500, in order for me to have a margin call. I will now space my sell orders very widely, selling slowly into any further strength. If the Nas gets over 2000, I'll start buying put LEAPs. If the SOX makes a 50% rally off recent lows, I'll most likely be back to 20-40% cash. It's been a wild ride.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (54052)	10/13/2001 12:25:47 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

P/B for semiequips, now vs. 1998 low : Stock Price Mkt Cap Shares O/S Book Value P/B 1998 PB Trough P/B Downside AMAT $33.86 28,913 854 $9.13 3.7 2.8 -25% KLAC $36.36 7,091 195 $9.05 4.0 1.7 -58% LRCX $18.70 2,497 134 $5.33 3.5 0.8 -77% NVLS $30.41 4,549 150 $12.38 2.5 2.2 -10% TER $22.30 3,892 175 $10.18 2.2 1.5 -32% Large Cap Average 3.2 1.8 -40%