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Pastimes : Ask da_cheif -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Moominoid who wrote (6044)10/15/2001 3:17:18 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8150
 
David,

Obviously there are often more then one cycle operating.

Some cycle theory argues that the cycles of price behavior in markets are quite precise. Others suggest they're real like windows. No question common cycles exist as in seasonal cyclical characteristics. How to apply them usefully is the problem.

Cycles are not always parts of other cycles; i.e., a 30-day cycle is not necessarily two 15's, or a 45-week cycle is not 3 of 15 weeks. Harmonic analysis shows that their behavior is more properly described by allowing that cycles are not necessarily concurrent.

Finding where to begin cycles has always been a problem. Significant highs and lows are often the obvious, but they may be the result of a cycle further back which is not easily found..., and not close to the one your looking at...!

Whether deterministic or irregular..., my cycle studies have been drawn more and more towards the chaos theories and fractal analysis.