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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (21678)	10/15/2001 12:48:03 PM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

The problem is that many traders expect that the semis will be among the first stocks to rebound at the conclusion of this bear market. The current bear market began in the spring of 2000, and in the past bear markets have lasted an average of about a year (11.6 months). Many traders don't want to miss the bottom, and they're always at the ready to eagerly anticipate an upswing. Whether this bear market is going to last a lot longer than they expect is another question. Given the fundamentals and the state of the world, it might well last longer. That's something that no one can predict (except in hindsight). There's a distinct possibility that longer-term traders could get burned either way with the semis. Many traders have reached the conclusion that the only way to profit in this volatilve market is to trade the shorter-term swings up and down. I think you have to be prepared for the possibility that your semi shorts aren't going to go as expected. Already, they haven't gone as expected. Yes, the fundies are poor, but it often isn't about fundies. Traders use stocks as trading vehicles -- to h with the fundies. The game often has little relation with reality. You can stress the bottom line all you like, but in the short term it may be irrelevant, and in the long term, it might well improve markedly. If there was a big shift in sentiment, based on the belief that the bear market was coming to an end, all bets would be off for the longer-term shorts in the semi sector. But you know all this. I'm tempted to ask whether you use stops, or whether you have a time frame for your shorts, and exit the trades if they don't go as expected.