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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (21719)	10/16/2001 8:06:41 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

Don, Thought you might find this interesting, since your 62% number turned up over 140 years of market data. From a friend of mine who has done a lot of research on bear markets: "Once the DJIA declined 30%+, which it did on Sept. 21, the probability of a 40% decline before a 30% rally becomes 62%, and the probability of a 45% decline before a 30% rally becomes 42%. The study was done covering 21 events from 1860 to 2001. The probabilities for these declines for events after 1900 are only slightly greater."