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To: sun-tzu who wrote (129679)	10/16/2001 6:30:29 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

hmmm... how do you know ag hasn't posted? scary sounds in background

To: sun-tzu who wrote (129679)	10/16/2001 6:37:41 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

there is also a problem of insufficient observations to even make a good statistical rule -- you can go back and chart for the last ten years all the instances where VIX has gone over 38 (or even higher than ave on some % basis) and you only have a handful -- but on more than one instance -- there was a spike, a lull at a relatively high value and then THE peak --

To: sun-tzu who wrote (129679)	10/16/2001 6:40:45 PM
From: sun-tzu	Respond to of 436258

Best and Worst Sectors 10/16/01 -------------- On ----------------- On -------------- Index 10/16 5 Day YTD .....Index 10/16 5 Day YTD -------------- ------ ----- ----- -------------- ------ ----- ----- Networking Ind +4.3% +18% -63% ..... Real Estate iS -0.9% +1% +2% Natural Gas In +3.4% +5% -23% .....Telecom Index -0.6% 0% -18% Oil Service In +3.3% +5% -40% .....Pharmaceutical 0.0% +2% -11% Semiconductor +2.5% +15% -20% ..... Healthcare Ind +0.1% +2% -12% Gold Mining In +2.4% 0% +8% ..... Cyclical Index +0.3% +6% -5% Internet Index +2.3% +16% -54% .....Consumer Index +0.3% +2% -12% Brokerage Indx +2.2% +14% -20% ..... Dow Ind +0.4% +4% -13% Comp Software +2.2% +11% -46% .....Forest/Paper +0.4% +8% -7% NASDAQ 100 +1.9% +13% -40% .....BlueChipTop 10 +0.4% -1% -51% Comp Hardware +1.9% +13% -39% .....CRB Index +0.6% -1% -19%

To: sun-tzu who wrote (129679)	10/16/2001 6:46:20 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<we stand a high probability of having hit a bottom in September which is as unlikely as AG posting on this thread. > We did hit a bottom in September. No? Did we hit THE bottom? Of course not but I agree that going short with the vix at 38 especially in size is not the move. Taking the range into account I am looking to go short sometime between tomorrow and Friday's close. Especially if we get a double bottom at 32. And even if I do, I'm selling QQQ stock and not buying puts in size until I see the vix back in the mid to low 20s. AG posting out here? I think he was about to but read the thread header and thought better of the idea.