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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: heatsinker2 who wrote (58997)	10/18/2001 12:10:40 AM
From: jcholewa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

> Pravin- No talk of returning to profitability > In real estate it's location, location, location. > For AMD it's flash, flash, flash.   If AMD is flat with microprocessor units, then they will sell at leat 7.5 million of these chips. How much did ASP just go up with the introduction of the 1.10GHz Duron and the Athlon XP? Top level DIY market price was around a hundred bucks, and now it's around two hundred bucks. I'm not naive enough to suggest that AMD's ASPs will go up 150%, but I could easily see their ASPs going up, say, $15 (especially after seeing hints that the Athlon XP is coming into the market in strong volumes much earlier than anticipated). This means that AMD's microprocessor revenues would go up by $112.5 million.   Now, if AMD can manage to go without selling any fabs or firing another five thousand people in Q4, this means that they're working against a baseline of a $97 million loss. $112.5 - $97 is above zero. Yes, Flash could mitigate this into a loss, but the important thing to note is that AMD can have a profitable quarter without Flash having to be exceptionally strong. And, well, I'm being conservative on my microprocessor unit estimates. I personally think that Q4 will be seasonally stronger than Q3. For one thing, the industry probably won't be paralyzed for half a month like it was last Q.       -JC