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To: John Madarasz who wrote (130004)	10/18/2001 12:31:32 AM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

An Argentine debt default would do several things: 1) would destroy USD, resulting in more scarcity - it's not as if the US itself would be defaulting; Argentine debt is much like corporate debt, inasmuch as Argentina can't print more USD 2) would prompt a flight to safety that would boost the USD, whether or not this is justified 3) would cause other Latin American currencies to fall in relation to the USD - so the USD would rise on a trade-weighted basis 4) if a chain of defaults ensues, then this would further exacerbate the debt deflation that is occurring Remember that the defaults in the current debt deflation are not confined to USD denominated assets. The risk of default is growing in all currencies. BWDIK.