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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KailuaBoy who wrote (3194)	10/18/2001 2:03:02 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

It is important to have dissenting voices no matter how lunatic they may seem at the time. Besides, Berkeley has always had unusual dissent. During WW2 there were those who protested attacking fortress Europe. The BART example isn't a bad example. It is representative of what has been silently happening everywhere in this country since at least '98. The terms of strike settlements aren't being revealed. The unions have realized that divulging the details creates problems for going back to the well any time soon. AG believes productivity has risen so that such demands for extra compensation don't lead to inflation. The wrong way to assess productivity is to try to calculate the current value of output per man hour. The right way is to calculate the difference between the marginal rate of compensation and long term structural productivity which had been advancing at an extremely stable 2% per year for centuries. That rate is intrinsically equal to all the effort humans ever want to make to achieve wealth. I estimate the marginal rate of compensation to be advancing at 6% per annum. This means that productivity must be advancing at 4% per annum in order for no inflation to occur. It's an illusion to believe that productivity is advancing at a rate any different from what it has always been. Technology effects are completely within the 2%. Therefore the rate of inflation is equal to the weighted mean of marginal and average compensation minus the 2% structural productivity rate. According to this formula inflation is 3%. That's no way to come out of a slowdown. There are a lot of average workers who think they deserve more. Aren't they worth as much as BART workers?