Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (145681)	10/19/2001 9:06:55 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi John, RE: "A good question is will demand "snap back", or slowly build off the bottom. " Demand will probably build back slower than molasses. But the inventory in the channel is so horribly thin, that even a slow build back could cause ship delays, because there's just no room for any type of growth in the channel for a lot of different components. I question the system's ability to even handle a return to growth. Heck, even now, in this economy, it almost took two months for us to locate all the components (excl processor) we needed for a variety of parts for the manufacturing of this current batch at work, which was pretty much unheard of a quarter earlier. A day maybe, not two months with the past two solid weeks being sheer nerve-racking, hustling. I think mfgs have reduced production so much on so many components that there's just no play room in the system - if all your orders aren't on the books a quarter in advance, get in line and wait, kind of thing. We had them on the books a quarter in advance, but you're completely screwed if you increase production. Sure, when there are shortages, it's not unusual to have 6-week to 12-week lead-times, sometimes even 6 months, but I wouldn't exactly call this economy a shortage situation. But it may be some sort of an artificially created one, intentionally induced by manufacturers aggressively slowing down production. Maybe manufacturers just over shot on the bottom. Something's up and I don't have the expertise to know exactly what. I'm not sure the distys know what's up either. A comm disty told me things still stink out there, so maybe manufacturers have simply resorted to build-to-order. But there's absolutely no wiggle room. It's ridiculous. It's concerning. Regards, Amy J

To: Road Walker who wrote (145681)	10/19/2001 12:54:40 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

John, <<<There have been CIO surveys (sorry no link) that report that 70%+ plan to upgrade/replace PC's next year. But was that before 9/11? Well, even if they did close the checkbook after that in knee-jerk fashion, they probably go back to business as usual at some point, for all of these reasons of yours: <<<Windows XP should be gaining traction by at least the second quarter of next year, for consumers. MHz will probably be in the 2 GHz to 2.5 GHz range by the second half (anyone correct me if I'm wrong), making the current product base seem very slow. So the stars may be aligned to give us a "snap back" in demand. Tony