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To: Amy J who wrote (145682)10/19/2001 11:44:34 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Amy,

re: Something's up and I don't have the expertise to know exactly what. I'm not sure the distys know what's up either. A comm disty told me things still stink out there, so maybe manufacturers have simply resorted to build-to-order. But there's absolutely no wiggle room. It's ridiculous. It's concerning.

JIT manufacturing cuts both ways. I think that when things were percolating along pretty good, and there were shortages mid-2000, lots of manufacturers double ordered parts, then canceled when demand fell off a cliff. Now the manufacturers are probably gun shy, after finally working through the extra inventory. The NAPM numbers have been strong, which is a leading indicator that demand had been picking up, prior to 9/11.

But what you say about delays in getting parts is good news from an investment perspective (if not for your personal situation). Shortages beget better prices and gross margins, which cures a lot of earnings problems, even if the total volume isn't what you would like.

John